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The Monetary-Fiscal Mix: Long-Run Implications

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Abstract

The long-run dynamics of public deficits and debt are modeled, assuming that public debt competes with capital for limited private savings. The interest costs of the debt are endogenously determined in this market, and the deficit in other budget transactions is a constant fraction of Gross National Product. Simulations with parameter values suggested by recent United States experience show the likelihood of unstable paths, along which debt grows faster than GNP indefinitely.

Suggested Citation

  • James Tobin, 1986. "The Monetary-Fiscal Mix: Long-Run Implications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 780, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:780 Note: CFP 645.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Weak Convergence to the Matrix Stochastic Integral BdB," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 796, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    3. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    4. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 468-497, December.
    5. Phillips, P C B, 1974. "The Estimation of Some Continuous Time Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(5), pages 803-823, September.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1981. "Testing for Unit Roots: 1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 753-779, May.
    8. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
    9. Kramer, Walter, 1984. "On the consequences of trend for simultaneous equation estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 23-30.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Sébastien & Dallery, Thomas, 2013. "Le Canada et l’austérité expansionniste dans les années quatre-vingt-dix : un « succès » macroéconomique à revisiter ?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 207-230, Septembre.
    2. Alberto Bagnai, 2004. "Keynesian and neoclassical fiscal susteinability indicators, with applications to EMU member countries," Working Papers 75, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1989. "Fiscal deficits and relative prices in a growing world economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-484, May.
    4. Bianconi, Marcelo, 2000. "The effects of alternative fiscal policies on the intertemporal government budget constraint," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 31-52, February.
    5. Pierre Duguay & Yves Rabeau, 1989. "Les effets macro-économiques de la politique budgétaire : de Keynes à la synthèse néo-classique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(4), pages 597-620.

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