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Fiscal policy switching in Japan, the US, and the UK

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  • Ito, Arata
  • Watanabe, Tsutomu
  • Yabu, Tomoyoshi

Abstract

This paper estimates fiscal policy feedback rules in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom for more than a century, allowing for stochastic regime changes. Estimating a Markov-switching model by the Bayesian method, we find the following: First, the Japanese data clearly reject the view that the fiscal policy regime is fixed, i.e., that the Japanese government adopted a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian regime throughout the entire period. Instead, our results indicate a stochastic switch of the debt-GDP ratio between stationary and nonstationary processes, and thus a stochastic switch between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. Second, our simulation exercises using the estimated parameters and transition probabilities do not necessarily reject the possibility that the debt-GDP ratio may be nonstationary even in the long run (i.e., globally nonstationary). Third, the Japanese result is in sharp contrast with the results for the US and the UK which indicate that in these countries the government’s fiscal behavior is consistently characterized by Ricardian policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ito, Arata & Watanabe, Tsutomu & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2011. "Fiscal policy switching in Japan, the US, and the UK," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 380-413.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:25:y:2011:i:4:p:380-413
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2011.09.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    2. Doi, Takero & Hoshi, Takeo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 414-433.
    3. Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 2014. "Forty Years of Leverage: What Have We Learned about Sovereign Debt?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 266-271, May.
    4. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2013. "Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 218-247, December.
    5. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability and regime shifts in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 364-375.
    8. Jun-Hyung Ko & Hiroshi Morita, 2013. "Regime Switches in Japanese Fiscal Policy: Markov-Switching VAR Approach," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-270, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Ogawa, Kazuo & Imai, Kentaro, 2014. "Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 201-216.
    10. Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate:A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," ISER Discussion Paper 0955, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Gulcin Guresci PEHLIVAN & Esra BALLI, 2016. "Testing the Existence of Ricardian or Non-Ricardian Regimes for CIS Countries," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 4(1), pages 9-13.
    12. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2014. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 1079-1091.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy rule; Fiscal discipline; Markov-switching regression;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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