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A multifactor model of stock returns with endogenous regime switching

Author

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  • Patrick Coggi

    ()

  • Bogdan Manescu

    ()

Abstract

We estimate a state-dependent multifactor model with two endogenous states. Its pricing accuracy is slightly superior to that of the Fama and French (1993, 1996) model. We have evidence for dramatically increased factor loadings for distress factors in one state. These results have implications for cost-of-capital calculations, portfolio management, risk analysis and other applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Coggi & Bogdan Manescu, 2004. "A multifactor model of stock returns with endogenous regime switching," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-01, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2004:2004-01
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    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/dp2004/dp01-coggi-manescu_ganz.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1998. "Value versus Growth: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1975-1999, December.
    4. Eric Ghysels, 1998. "On Stable Factor Structures in the Pricing of Risk: Do Time-Varying Betas Help or Hurt?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 549-573, April.
    5. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    7. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
    8. He, Jia, et al, 1996. " Tests of the Relations among Marketwide Factors, Firm-Specific Variables, and Stock Returns Using a Conditional Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1891-1908, December.
    9. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    11. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    12. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    13. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    14. repec:hrv:faseco:30721347 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Takahiro Komatsu & Naoki Makimoto, 2015. "Dynamic Investment Strategy with Factor Models Under Regime Switches," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(2), pages 209-237, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Empirical asset pricing; endogenous regime switching; state-dependent models; nonstandard maximum-likelihood estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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