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Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean

Listed author(s):
  • Magda Kandil

    ()

    (Senior Economist, Caribbean II Division, Western Hemisphere Department. International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington DC.)

The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, the evidence indicates the existence of a kinked supply curve, which implies that positive demand shocks feed predominantly into prices while negative demand shocks mainly affect output. This suggests that the high variability of aggregate demand in Caribbean countries, frequently exposed to shocks, tends to create an upward bias on inflation and a downward bias on real output growth, on average, over time. The analysis highlights the benefits of eliminating structural rigidities responsible for the kinked nature of the supply curve, and points to the dangers of pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies.

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File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/num_anteriores/XVIII-1/02_InflationKandil_45-69.pdf
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Article provided by in its journal Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA.

Volume (Year): XVIII (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January-June)
Pages: 45-69

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Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:45-69
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  1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  2. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
  3. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
  4. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
  5. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
  6. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
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