IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/gunsru/2007_001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effect of dependency in systems for multivariate surveillance

Author

Listed:
  • Andersson, Eva

    () (Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

In many situations we need a system for detecting changes early. Examples are early detection of disease outbreaks, of patients at risk and of financial instability. In influenza outbreaks, for example, we want to detect an increase in the number of cases. Important indicators might be the number of cases of influenza-like illness and pharmacy sales (e.g. aspirin). By continually monitoring these indicators, we can early detect a change in the process of interest. The methodology of statistical surveillance is used. Often, the conclusions about the process(es) of interest is improved if the surveillance is based on several indicators. Here three systems for multivariate surveillance are compared. One system, called LRpar, is based on parallel likelihood ratio methods, since the likelihood ratio has been shown to have several optimality properties. In LRpar, the marginal density of each indicator is monitored and an alarm is called as soon as one of the likelihood ratios exceeds its alarm limit. The LRpar is compared to an optimal alarm system, called LRjoint, which is derived from the full likelihood ratio for the joint density. The performances of LRpar and LRjoint are compared to a system where the Hotellings T2 is monitored. The evaluation is made using the delay of a motivated alarm, as a function of the times of the changes. The effect of dependency is investigated: both dependency between the monitored processes and correlation between the time points when the changes occur. When the first change occurs immediately, the three methods work rather similarly, for independent processes and zero correlation between the change times. But when all processes change later, the T2 has much longer delay than LRjoint and LRpar. This holds both when the processes are independent and when they have a positive covariance. When we assume a positive correlation between the change times, the LRjoint yields a shorter delay than LRpar when the changes actually do occur simultaneously, whereas the opposite is true when the changes do actually occur at different time point.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Eva, 2007. "Effect of dependency in systems for multivariate surveillance," Research Reports 2007:1, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunsru:2007_001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/7555
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars-Erik Öller & Lasse Koskinen, 2004. "A classifying procedure for signalling turning points," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 197-214.
    2. Max Petzold & Christian Sonesson & Eva Bergman & Helle Kieler, 2004. "Surveillance in Longitudinal Models: Detection of Intrauterine Growth Restriction," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 1025-1033, December.
    3. Eva Andersson & David Bock & Marianne Frisén, 2004. "Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 93-108.
    4. H. E. T. Holgersson, 2004. "Testing for Multivariate Autocorrelation," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 379-395.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    6. Sun, Kai & Basu, Asit P., 1995. "A characterization of a bivariate geometric distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 307-311, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andersson, Eva, 2008. "Hotelling´s T2 Method in Multivariate On-line Surveillance. On the Delay of an Alarm," Research Reports 2008:3, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate; Surveillance; Dependency; Optimal; Covariance; Likelihood ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunsru:2007_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Linus Schiöler). General contact details of provider: http://www.statistics.gu.se/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.