Evaluations of likelihood based surveillance of volatility
The volatility of asset returns are important in finance. Different likelihood based methods of statistical surveillance for detecting a change in the variance are evaluated. The differences are how the partial likelihood ratios are weighted. The full likelihood ratio, Shiryaev-Roberts, Shewhart and the CUSUM methods are derived in case of an independent and identically distributed Gaussian process. The behavior of the methods is studied both when there is no change and when the change occurs at different time points. The false alarms are controlled by the median run length. Differences and limiting equalities of the methods are shown. The performances when the process parameters for which the methods are optimized for differ from the true values of the parameters are evaluated. The methods are illustrated on a period of Standard and Poor’s 500 stock market index.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Statistical Research Unit, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG|
Web page: http://www.statistics.gu.se/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- A. F. B. Costa & M. A. Rahim, 2004. "Monitoring Process Mean and Variability with One Non-central Chi-square Chart," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1171-1183.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001.
"Detecting Mutiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0202, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Chu, Chia-Shang James & Stinchcombe, Maxwell & White, Halbert, 1996. "Monitoring Structural Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1045-1065, September.
- E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.
- Eva Andersson & David Bock & Marianne Frisén, 2004. "Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 93-108.
- Christian Sonesson & David Bock, 2003. "A review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 166(1), pages 5-21.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunsru:2007_009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Linus Schiöler)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.