Multivariate outbreak detection
On-line monitoring is needed to detect outbreaks of diseases like influenza. Surveillance is also needed for other kinds of outbreaks, in the sense of an increasing expected value after a constant period. Information on spatial location or other variables might be available and may be utilized. We adapted a robust method for outbreak detection to a multivariate case. The relation between the times of the onsets of the outbreaks at different locations (or some other variable) was used to determine the sufficient statistic for surveillance. The derived maximum likelihood estimator of the outbreak regression was semi-parametric in the sense that the baseline and the slope were non-parametric while the distribution belonged to the exponential family. The estimator was used in a generalized likelihood ratio surveillance method. The method was evaluated with respect to robustness and efficiency in a simulation study and applied to spatial data for detection of influenza outbreaks in Sweden.
|Date of creation:||17 Sep 2010|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming as Schiöler, Linus and Marianne Frisén, 'Multivariate outbreak detection' in Journal of Applied Statistics, 2011.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Statistical Research Unit, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG|
Web page: http://www.statistics.gu.se/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marianne Frisen & Eva Andersson & Linus Schioler, 2010.
"Evaluation of multivariate surveillance,"
Journal of Applied Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 2089-2100.
- Christian Sonesson & David Bock, 2003. "A review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 166(1), pages 5-21.
- Andrew Lawson & Allan Clark & Carmen Vidal Rodeiro, 2004. "Developments in General and Syndromic Surveillance for Small Area Health Data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 951-966.
- Zhou, Qin & Luo, Yunzhao & Wang, Zhaojun, 2010. "A control chart based on likelihood ratio test for detecting patterned mean and variance shifts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1634-1645, June.
- Martin Kulldorff, 2001. "Prospective time periodic geographical disease surveillance using a scan statistic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(1), pages 61-72.
- Frisén, Marianne & Andersson, Eva & Schiöler, Linus, 2007. "Robust outbreak surveillance of epidemics in Sweden," Research Reports 2007:12, Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg.
- Peter A. Rogerson, 2001. "Monitoring point patterns for the development of space-time clusters," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(1), pages 87-96.
- Höhle, Michael & Paul, Michaela, 2008. "Count data regression charts for the monitoring of surveillance time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(9), pages 4357-4368, May.
- Bersimis, Sotiris & Psarakis, Stelios & Panaretos, John, 2006. "Multivariate Statistical Process Control Charts: An Overview," MPRA Paper 6399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunsru:2010_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Linus Schiöler)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.