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Modeling influenza incidence for the purpose of on-line monitoring

Author

Listed:
  • Andersson, Eva

    (Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Bock, David

    (Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Frisén, Marianne

    (Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

We describe and discuss statistical models of Swedish influenza data, with special focus on aspects which are important in on-line monitoring. Earlier suggested statistical models are reviewed and the possibility of using them to describe the variation in influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory diagnoses (LDI) is discussed. Exponential functions were found to work better than earlier suggested models for describing the influenza incidence. However, the parameters of the estimated functions varied considerably between years. For monitoring purposes we need models which focus on stable indicators of the change at the outbreak and at the peak. For outbreak detection we focus on ILI data. Instead of a parametric estimate of the baseline (which could be very uncertain,), we suggest a model utilizing the monotonicity property of a rise in the incidence. For ILI data at the outbreak, Poisson distributions can be used as a first approximation. To confirm that the peak has occurred and the decline has started, we focus on LDI data. A Gaussian distribution is a reasonable approximation near the peak. In view of the variability of the shape of the peak, we suggest that a detection system use the monotonicity properties of a peak.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Eva & Bock, David & Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Modeling influenza incidence for the purpose of on-line monitoring," Research Reports 2007:5, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunsru:2007_005
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/7584
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Principles for Multivariate Surveillance," Research Reports 2007:4, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    2. S. Hussain & R. Harrison & J. Ayres & S. Walter & J. Hawker & R. Wilson & G. Shukur, 2005. "Estimation and forecasting hospital admissions due to Influenza: Planning for winter pressure. The case of the West Midlands, UK," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 191-205.
    3. Bock, David, 2007. "Consequences of using the probability of a false alarm as the false alarm measure," Research Reports 2007:3, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    4. Andersson, Eva, 2007. "Effect of dependency in systems for multivariate surveillance," Research Reports 2007:1, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    5. Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Optimal Sequential Surveillance for Finance, Public Health, and Other Areas," Research Reports 2007:2, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schiöler, Linus, 2009. "Explorative analysis of spatial patterns of influenza incidences in Sweden 1999—2008," Research Reports 2008:5, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    2. Pettersson, Kjell, 2008. "On curve estimation under order restrictions," Research Reports 2007:15, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    3. Schiöler, Linus & Frisén, Marianne, 2008. "On statistical surveillance of the performance of fund managers," Research Reports 2008:4, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    4. Schiöler, Linus, 2010. "Modelling the spatial patterns of influenza incidence in Sweden," Research Reports 2010:1, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    5. Andersson, Eva & Kühlmann-Berenzon, Sharon & Linde, Annika & Schiöler, Linus & Rubinova, Sandra & Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Predictions by early indicators of the time and height of yearly influenza outbreaks in Sweden," Research Reports 2007:7, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    6. Linus Schiöler & Marianne Fris�n, 2012. "Multivariate outbreak detection," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 223-242, April.
    7. Andersson, Eva, 2008. "Hotelling´s T2 Method in Multivariate On-line Surveillance. On the Delay of an Alarm," Research Reports 2008:3, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    8. Bock, David & Andersson, Eva & Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Statistical Surveillance of Epidemics: Peak Detection of Influenza in Sweden," Research Reports 2007:6, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    9. Bock, David & Pettersson, Kjell, 2007. "Explorative analysis of spatial aspects on the Swedish influenza data," Research Reports 2007:10, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    10. Bock, David, 2007. "Evaluations of likelihood based surveillance of volatility," Research Reports 2007:9, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    11. Bock, David & Andersson, Eva & Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Similarities and differences between statistical surveillance and certain decision rules in finance," Research Reports 2007:8, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    12. Pettersson, Kjell, 2008. "Unimodal regression in the two-parameter exponential family with constant or known dispersion parameter," Research Reports 2007:14, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    13. Frisén, Marianne & Andersson, Eva, 2008. "Semiparametric surveillance of outbreaks," Research Reports 2007:11, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monitoring; influenza; surveillance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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