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Modelling the spatial patterns of influenza incidence in Sweden

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  • Schiöler, Linus

    () (Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

Information about the spatial spread of epidemics can be useful for many purposes. The spatial aspect of Swedish influenza data was analyzed with the main aim of finding patterns that could be useful for statistical surveillance of the outbreak, i.e. for detecting an increase in incidence as soon as possible. In Sweden, two types of data are collected during the influenza season: laboratory diagnosed cases (LDI), collected by a number of laboratories, and cases of influenza-like illness (ILI), c... merollected by a number of selected physicians. Quality problems were found for both types of data but were most severe for ILI. No evidence for a geographical pattern was found. Instead, it was found that the influenza outbreak starts at about the same time in the major cities and then occurs in the rest of the country. The data were divided into two groups, a metropolitan group representing the major cities and a locality group representing the rest of the country. The properties of the metropolitan group and the locality group were studied and it was found that the time difference in the onset of the outbreak was about one week. Both parametric and nonparametric regression models were suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Schiöler, Linus, 2010. "Modelling the spatial patterns of influenza incidence in Sweden," Research Reports 2010:1, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunsru:2010_001
    as

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/23389
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andersson, Eva & Bock, David & Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Modeling influenza incidence for the purpose of on-line monitoring," Research Reports 2007:5, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    2. Marianne Frisen & Eva Andersson & Linus Schioler, 2010. "Evaluation of multivariate surveillance," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 2089-2100.
    3. AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2005," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 61 edited by Koua Louis Kouakou.
    4. Martin Kulldorff, 2001. "Prospective time periodic geographical disease surveillance using a scan statistic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(1), pages 61-72.
    5. Frisén, Marianne & Andersson, Eva & Schiöler, Linus, 2007. "Robust outbreak surveillance of epidemics in Sweden," Research Reports 2007:12, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Influenza; Sweden; onset of outbreak; statistical models; spatial; monitoring;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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