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Multivariate outbreak detection

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  • Linus Schiöler
  • Marianne Fris�n

Abstract

Online monitoring is needed to detect outbreaks of diseases such as influenza. Surveillance is also needed for other kinds of outbreaks, in the sense of an increasing expected value after a constant period. Information on spatial location or other variables might be available and may be utilized. We adapted a robust method for outbreak detection to a multivariate case. The relation between the times of the onsets of the outbreaks at different locations (or some other variable) was used to determine the sufficient statistic for surveillance. The derived maximum-likelihood estimator of the outbreak regression was semi-parametric in the sense that the baseline and the slope were non-parametric while the distribution belonged to the one-parameter exponential family. The estimator was used in a generalized-likelihood ratio surveillance method. The method was evaluated with respect to robustness and efficiency in a simulation study and applied to spatial data for detection of influenza outbreaks in Sweden.

Suggested Citation

  • Linus Schiöler & Marianne Fris�n, 2012. "Multivariate outbreak detection," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 223-242, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:223-242
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2011.584522
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    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Frisén, 2014. "Spatial outbreak detection based on inference principles for multivariate surveillance," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(8), pages 759-769, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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