IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v75y2025ipas1062940824002274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does oil price uncertainty affect corporate total factor productivity? Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Ziqing
  • Chen, Leyi

Abstract

In the era of high-quality economic development, oil price uncertainty (OVX) and the total factor productivity (TFP) of corporations are pivotal issues for both policymakers and scholars. This study leverages the implied volatility of oil prices and financial data from Chinese listed industrial companies spanning 2010 to 2022 to investigate the influence of OVX on firms’ TFP and the underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that OVX substantially dampens firms’ TFP, with corporate leverage and financialization identified as key channels through which this impact occurs. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative impact of OVX on TFP is particularly pronounced in firms operating in industries with low concentration and among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The extension analysis suggests a threshold effect in the relationship between OVX and corporate TFP, with the suppressive effect of OVX on TFP intensifying as the level of corporate financialization increases. Consequently, it is imperative for policymakers to closely monitor oil price fluctuations and implement timely strategies to mitigate the risks associated with OVX.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Ziqing & Chen, Leyi, 2025. "Does oil price uncertainty affect corporate total factor productivity? Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:75:y:2025:i:pa:s1062940824002274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2024.102302
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940824002274
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102302?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demir, FIrat, 2009. "Financial liberalization, private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 314-324, March.
    2. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    3. Ibrahim Yarba & Z. Nuray Guner, 2020. "Uncertainty, macroprudential policies and corporate leverage : Firm-level evidence," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 33-42.
    4. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    5. Lee, Kiseok & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2011. "Oil Price Shocks, Firm Uncertainty, And Investment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 416-436, November.
    6. Ren, Xiaohang & liu, Ziqing & Jin, Chenglu & Lin, Ruya, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and enterprise total factor productivity: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 201-218.
    7. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    8. Ren, Xiaohang & Qin, Jianing & Jin, Chenglu & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Global oil price uncertainty and excessive corporate debt in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    10. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Oil price uncertainty in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 852-856, November.
    11. Levine, Oliver & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2021. "Finance and productivity growth: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 91-107.
    12. Aye, Goodness C. & Dadam, Vincent & Gupta, Rangan & Mamba, Bonginkosi, 2014. "Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 41-47.
    13. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    14. Sangho Kim, 2018. "Firm heterogeneity in sources of total factor productivity growth for Japanese manufacturing firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(58), pages 6301-6315, December.
    15. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    16. Bouri, Elie & Chen, Qian & Lien, Donald & Lv, Xin, 2017. "Causality between oil prices and the stock market in China: The relevance of the reformed oil product pricing mechanism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 34-48.
    17. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    19. Marios Karabarbounis & Patrick Macnamara, 2021. "Misallocation and Financial Frictions: the Role of Long-Term Financing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 44-63, April.
    20. Sarker, Md Showaib Rahman & Mazumder, Sharif & Amin, Md Ruhul, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty, workplace misconduct, and cash holding," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    21. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2011. "Oil price shocks and industry stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-974, September.
    22. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    23. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    24. Peng, Cheng & Zhu, Huiming & Guo, Yawei & Chen, Xiuyun, 2018. "Risk spillover of international crude oil to China's firms: Evidence from granger causality across quantile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 188-199.
    25. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    26. Wu, Xi & Wang, Yudong & Tong, Xinle, 2021. "Cash holdings and oil price uncertainty exposures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    27. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 79-87, January.
    29. Ilyas, Muhammad & Khan, Aamir & Nadeem, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and corporate investment: Evidence from the oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    30. Zhang, Xiang & Zhang, Zongyi & Zhou, Han, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    31. Yoon, Kyung Hwan & Ratti, Ronald A., 2011. "Energy price uncertainty, energy intensity and firm investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 67-78, January.
    32. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    33. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    34. Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Çolak, Gönül & Öztekin, Özde, 2017. "Political environment, financial intermediation costs, and financing patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 167-192.
    35. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2018. "The effects of financialization on investment: evidence from firm-level data for the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1393-1416.
    36. Gupta, Kartick & Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, 2018. "Do macroeconomic conditions and oil prices influence corporate risk-taking?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 65-86.
    37. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Globalization Institute Working Papers 20, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    38. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh, 2019. "Crude oil price uncertainty and corporate investment: New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 54-65.
    39. Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "The asymmetric impact of oil prices, interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    40. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Le, Anh, 2020. "The importance of managerial ability on crude oil price uncertainty-firm performance relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    41. Sadorsky, Perry, 2008. "Assessing the impact of oil prices on firms of different sizes: Its tough being in the middle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3854-3861, October.
    42. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    43. Steve Crawford & Garen Markarian & Volkan Muslu & Richard Price, 2021. "Oil prices, earnings, and stock returns," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 218-257, March.
    44. Cao, Hong & Guo, Litian & Zhang, Lin, 2020. "Does oil price uncertainty affect renewable energy firms’ investment? Evidence from listed firms in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    45. Halkos, George Emmanuel & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2007. "Productivity efficiency and firm size: An empirical analysis of foreign owned companies," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 713-731, December.
    46. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
    47. Monge, Manuel & Cristóbal, Enrique, 2021. "Terrorism and the behavior of oil production and prices in OPEC," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    48. Song, Xinyu & Yang, Baochen, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty, corporate governance and firm performance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 469-487.
    49. Fan, Zhenjun & Zhang, Zongyi & Zhao, Yanfei, 2021. "Does oil price uncertainty affect corporate leverage? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    50. Prodromou, Tina & Demirer, Riza, 2022. "Oil price shocks and cost of capital: Does market liquidity play a role?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    51. Gary Jefferson & Bai Huamao & Guan Xiaojing & Yu Xiaoyun, 2006. "R&D Performance in Chinese industry," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4-5), pages 345-366.
    52. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 577-583.
    53. Nickell, Stephen & Wadhwani, Sushil & Wall, Martin, 1992. "Productivity growth in U.K. companies, 1975-1986," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1055-1085, June.
    54. Yin, Libo & Lu, Man, 2022. "Oil uncertainty and firms' risk-taking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    55. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ren, Xiaohang & liu, Ziqing & Jin, Chenglu & Lin, Ruya, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and enterprise total factor productivity: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 201-218.
    2. Fan, Zhenjun & Zhang, Zongyi & Zhao, Yanfei, 2021. "Does oil price uncertainty affect corporate leverage? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Yang, Baochen & An, Haokai & Song, Xinyu, 2024. "Oil price uncertainty and corporate inefficient investment: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Yang, Baochen & Song, Xinyu, 2023. "Does oil price uncertainty matter in firm innovation? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Liu, Xinheng & Pan, Sishi & Li, Shuxian & Yang, Xin & Huang, Chuangxia, 2024. "Unraveling the causal impact: Oil price uncertainty on firms’ productivity in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Zhang, Zongyi & Fan, Zhenjun, 2024. "Oil price uncertainty and corporate diversification: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 929-947.
    7. Yin, Libo & Yang, Sen, 2023. "Oil price returns and firm's fixed investment: A production pattern," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Wen, Fenghua & Chen, Meng & Zhang, Yun & Miao, Xiao, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and audit fees: Evidence from the energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Sarker, Md Showaib Rahman & Mazumder, Sharif & Amin, Md Ruhul, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty, workplace misconduct, and cash holding," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Song, Xinyu & Yang, Baochen, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty, corporate governance and firm performance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 469-487.
    11. Amin, Md Ruhul & Wang, Xinyu & Aktas, Elvan, 2023. "Does oil price uncertainty affect corporate innovation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    12. Gan, Tian & Jiang, Yan & Wu, Xi & Zhang, Mingxin, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese bond market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Zhu, Qi & Jin, Sisi & Huang, Yuxuan & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and stock price informativeness: Evidence from listed U.S. companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Tripathi, Nitya Nand & Raj, Asha Binu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Oil price volatility and changes in corporate debt: An empirical study in the Indian landscape," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Li, Li & Chen, Hongyi & Xiang, Jingjie, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty, financial distress and real economic activities: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. Singh, Amanjot, 2022. "Oil Price uncertainty and labor investment efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    18. Xiao, Jihong & Chen, Xian & Li, Yang & Wen, Fenghua, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    19. Wong, Jin Boon & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2021. "Oil shocks and corporate payouts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    20. Deng, Zhengxing & Hao, Yu, 2024. "Energy price uncertainty, environmental policy, and firm investment: A dynamic modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:75:y:2025:i:pa:s1062940824002274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.