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Affine Models of Currency Pricing

  • David Backus
  • Silverio Foresi
  • Chris Telmer

Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has been largely unsuccessful in producing a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general arbitrage-free setting and describe the features a theory must have to account for the anomaly. In affine models, the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that we abandon the common requirement that interest rates be strictly positive.

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Paper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 96-9.

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Date of creation: Apr 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:96-9
Contact details of provider: Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126
Phone: (212) 998-0100
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
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  1. Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, . "Equilibrium Valuation of Foreign Exchange Claims," Research in Financial Economics 9510, Ohio State University.
  2. Amin, Kaushik I. & Jarrow, Robert A., 1991. "Pricing foreign currency options under stochastic interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 310-329, September.
  3. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1994. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert E. Cumby, 1987. "Is it Risk? Explaining Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 2380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," Working Papers 94-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Charles Engel, 1982. "Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," NBER Working Papers 1051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1991. "Market Microstructure Effects of Government Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 513-41.
  12. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  13. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  14. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "The Time Variation of Expected Returns and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 397-408, October.
  15. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  16. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1995. "Predicting excess returns in financial markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-69, January.
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