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Stylized Facts of the International Business Cycle Relevant for the Chilean Economy

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  • Carlos J. García T.
  • Patricio Jaramillo G.
  • Jorge Selaive C.

Abstract

This paper analyzes macroeconomic regularities in the main economic blocks (i.e., the U.S., Europe, and Japan) and describes the interaction between key variables of these groups and their relationship with relevant variables for the Chilean economy such as commodities prices, capital flows and sovereign spreads. Among the main findings are (i) U.S. GDP growth leads by two quarters the growth in Europe, Japan, and Latin America; (ii) high synchronization in both inflationary processes and monetary policies is observed; (iii) industrialized countries’ GDP growth leads movements in copper and oil prices, while the Chinese economy presents a high contemporaneous correlation with copper prices; (iv) the U.S. real exchange rate leads the price of commodities, and (v) higher capital flows to emerging markets and lower sovereign spreads lead economic growth in industrialized economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos J. García T. & Patricio Jaramillo G. & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Stylized Facts of the International Business Cycle Relevant for the Chilean Economy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:10:y:2007:i:1:p:71-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jorge Enrique Restrepo & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Regularidades Empíricas de la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 301, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    3. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    4. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    5. LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4wt4m7hg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. Jorge Selaive C., 2006. "Premio Soberano: Efecto de Movimientos en las Tasas de Interés Internacionales," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(2), pages 73-80, August.
    7. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    8. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2003. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Correlated with the Rest of the World?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 63-69, May.
    9. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fuentes H., Fernando & García, Carlos J., 2016. "The business cycle and copper mining in Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

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