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The Effects of Shock Size and Type on Labor-Contract Duration

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  • Wallace, Frederick H

Abstract

Empirical studies of the relation between uncertainty and the length of union-firm contracts have focused on the effects of inflation, money-supply, or industry-specific uncertainty. This article describes two extensions of previous work. First, real, aggregate uncertainty arising from oil shocks is incorporated into a contract-duration model. Oil shocks significantly affect contract length in seven of 21 U.S. manufacturing industries. Second, the model is used to test whether the duration of reopenable bargains is positively related to uncertainty associated with large shocks, as has been described in Danziger. The evidence indicates some qualified support for this proposition. Copyright 2001 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Wallace, Frederick H, 2001. "The Effects of Shock Size and Type on Labor-Contract Duration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(3), pages 658-681, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:19:y:2001:i:3:p:658-81
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christofides, Louis N, 1985. "The Impact of Controls on Wage Contract Duration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(377), pages 161-168, March.
    2. Mark Bils, 1991. "Testing for Contracting Effects on Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1129-1156.
    3. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Kevin J. Murphy, 1992. "Determinants of Contract Duration in Collective Bargaining Agreements," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 45(2), pages 352-365, January.
    5. Wallace, Frederick H. & Blanco, Herminio, 1991. "The effects of real and nominal shocks on union-firm contract duration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 361-380, June.
    6. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    7. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "`Long-term contracting, sticky prices, and monetary policy' : A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 317-323, July.
    8. Leaf Danziger, 1988. "Real Shocks, Efficient Risk Sharing, and the Duration of Labor Contracts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 435-440.
    9. Christofides, L. N. & Wilton, D. A., 1983. "The determinants of contract length : An empirical analysis based on Canadian micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 309-319.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    11. Barro, Robert J., 1977. "Long-term contracting, sticky prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 305-316, July.
    12. Canzoneri, Matthew B., 1980. "Labor contracts and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 241-255, April.
    13. Vroman, Susan B, 1989. "Inflation Uncertainty and Contract Duration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 677-681, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2004. "Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 270-287, February.
    2. Louis Christofides & Chen Peng, 2006. "Major Provisions of Labour Contracts and their Theoretical Coherence," CESifo Working Paper Series 1700, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Danziger, Leif, 2010. "Uniform and nonuniform staggering of wage contracts," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1038-1049, December.
    4. Christofides, Louis N. & Peng, Chen, 2006. "Contract duration and indexation in a period of real and nominal uncertainty," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 61-86, February.
    5. Hsuan-Yu Lin & Chih-Hai Yang, 2016. "Uncertainty, specific investment, and contract duration: evidence from the MLB player market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1009-1028, May.
    6. Brickley, James A & Misra, Sanjog & Van Horn, R Lawrence, 2006. "Contract Duration: Evidence from Franchising," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 173-196, April.
    7. Panu Poutvaara & Tuomas Takalo & Andreas Wagener, 2017. "The Optimal Duration of Contracts," CESifo Working Paper Series 6808, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Danziger, Leif, 2008. "Extension of labor contracts and optimal backpay," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 18-36, February.

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