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Testing for Contracting Effects on Employment

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  • Mark Bils

Abstract

I test the importance of wage rigidities from long-term contracts by observing how employment behaves when firms and workers recontract. If rigidities are important then we should observe employment adjusting after recontracting to undo movements in employment during the past contract that were excessive due to rigid wages. The data are for twelve manufacturing industries that display a strong bargaining pattern. I find that contract rigidities are important, causing considerably larger fluctuations in employment than would occur with flexible wages. By far the most striking case is in motor vehicles where long-term contracts much more than double the size of fluctuations in employment. I also examine the behavior of wage rates when new contracts are introduced. Wage growth does respond to employment growth during the prior contract in several of the industries; but these responses are not related to the pattern of employment responses across industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Bils, 1989. "Testing for Contracting Effects on Employment," NBER Working Papers 3051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3051
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    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boldrin, Michael & Horvath, Michael, 1995. "Labor Contracts and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 972-1004, October.
    2. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Evidence on Nominal Wage Rigidity from a Panel of U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 650-668, November.
    3. Andrew Charlton, 2003. "Nominal Wage Rigidity in The Australian Labour Market: Evidence from household Data," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 25-36, March.
    4. Wallace, Frederick H, 2001. "The Effects of Shock Size and Type on Labor-Contract Duration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(3), pages 658-681, July.

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