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Inflation Uncertainty and Contract Duration

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  • Vroman, Susan B

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of the duration of U.S. union contracts using a longitudinal contract data base. Support is found for the hypotheses that (1) inflation uncertainty reduces contract length and that (2) greater contracting costs, as proxied by a strike variable and by previous duration, increase contract length. In addition, contract duration is found to be greater for indexed contracts, to be procyclical, and to have increased over the sample period. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Vroman, Susan B, 1989. "Inflation Uncertainty and Contract Duration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 677-681, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:71:y:1989:i:4:p:677-81
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    Cited by:

    1. Christofides, Louis N. & Peng, Chen, 2006. "Contract duration and indexation in a period of real and nominal uncertainty," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 61-86, February.
    2. Hsuan-Yu Lin & Chih-Hai Yang, 2016. "Uncertainty, specific investment, and contract duration: evidence from the MLB player market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1009-1028, May.
    3. Barcena-Ruiz, Juan Carlos & Campo, Maria Luz, 2000. "Short-term or long-term labor contracts," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 249-260, May.
    4. Leif Danziger & Shoshana Neuman, 2005. "Delays in Renewal of Labor Contracts: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(2), pages 341-372, April.
    5. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2004. "Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 270-287, February.
    6. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 825-842.
    7. Danziger, Leif, 2008. "Extension of labor contracts and optimal backpay," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 18-36, February.
    8. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2011. "Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995," Staff Reports 521, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Kanago, Bryce, 1998. "The Relation between Contract Duration and Inflation Uncertainty: Further Evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 811-819, October.
    10. Brickley, James A & Misra, Sanjog & Van Horn, R Lawrence, 2006. "Contract Duration: Evidence from Franchising," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 173-196, April.
    11. Wenbo Shi & Tianke Feng, 2016. "Examining supply contracts under cost and demand uncertainties from supplier’s perspective: a real options approach," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 83-97, January.
    12. Mohamed Ali Ben Halima, 2005. "The determinants for labour contract length A French micro-econometric study," Working Papers 0503, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    13. Andersen, Torben M. & Stampe Christensen, Morten, 2002. "Contract renewal under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 637-652, April.
    14. Radygin Alexandr & Entov Revold & Apevalova E. & Shvetsov P., 2008. "Market Discipline and Contracts: Theory, Empiric Analysis, Law," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 117P.
    15. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    16. Dan Protopopescu, 2009. "Dynamic Stackelberg Game with Risk-Averse Players: Optimal Risk-Sharing under Asymmetric Information," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 797.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    17. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2010. "Price adjustment and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 181-200, February.
    18. Andersen, Torben M., 2002. "Nominal rigidities and the optimal rate of inflation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 375-389, June.
    19. Peter Cramton & Hamid Mehran & Joseph Tracy, 2010. "Bargaining with a Shared Interest: The Impact of Employee Stock Ownership Plans on Labor Disputes," Papers of Peter Cramton 98wpesop, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised Jun 2010.
    20. Wallace, Frederick H, 2001. "The Effects of Shock Size and Type on Labor-Contract Duration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(3), pages 658-681, July.
    21. López-Bayón, Susana & González-Díaz, Manuel, 2010. "Indefinite contract duration: Evidence from electronics subcontracting," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 145-159, June.
    22. Murphy, Kevin J., 2000. "What effect does uncertainty have on the length of labor contracts?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 181-201, March.
    23. Louis Christofides & Chen Peng, 2006. "Major Provisions of Labour Contracts and their Theoretical Coherence," CESifo Working Paper Series 1700, CESifo.
    24. Nir Klein, 2004. "Long-Term Contracts as a Strategic Device," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2004.16, Bank of Israel.

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