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The employment and wage effects of oil price shocks: a sectoral analysis

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  • Michael P. Keane
  • Eswar S. Prasad

Abstract

In this paper we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price shocks on employment and real wages, at the aggregate and industry levels. We also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level. We find that oil price increases result in a substantial decline in real wages for all workers, but raise the relative wage of skilled workers. The use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover this result, which is completely hidden in OLS estimates. While the short-run effect of oil price increases on aggregate employment is negative, the long-run effect is negligible. We find that oil price shocks induce substantial changes in employment shares and relative wages across industries. However, we find little evidence that oil price shocks cause labor to flow into those sectors with relative wage increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Keane & Eswar S. Prasad, 1991. "The employment and wage effects of oil price shocks: a sectoral analysis," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 51, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Loungani, Prakash, 1986. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 536-539, August.
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    6. Jovanovic, Boyan & Moffitt, Robert, 1990. "An Estimate of a Sectoral Model of Labor Mobility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 827-852, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Gomme & Richard Rogerson & Peter Rupert & Randall Wright, 2005. "The Business Cycle and the Life Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 415-592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sri Utami Ady, 2021. "The Effect of World Oil Prices, Gold Prices, and Other Energy Prices on the Indonesian Mining Sector with Exchange Rate of Indonesian Rupiah as the Moderating Effect," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 369-376.
    3. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    4. Kamil Dybczak & David Vonka & Nico van der Windt, 2008. "The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on the Czech Economy," Working Papers 2008/5, Czech National Bank.
    5. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2011. "Oil Shocks through International Transport Costs: Evidence from U.S. Business Cycles," Working Papers 1105, Florida International University, Department of Economics.

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