IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02163013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of oil prices on stock return: evidence from G7 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Omar Masood

    (University of Lahore)

  • Manuela Tvaronavičienė

    (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University)

  • Kiran Javaria

    (University of Lahore)

Abstract

The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of oil prices on the stock market of G7 countries. Oil prices not only affect the economy of a country but also the country's stock market. The stock market affects the stock valuation or, to put in another way, the company's stock value. The stock value is associated with the discounted sum of predictable future cash flows and these flows may be distressed by macroeconomic variables including oil prices fluctuations. This study has researched the impact of oil prices' fluctuation on countries included G7, i.e.. For the analysis, the most recent data is collected. In this study, the real stock return has considered as a depended variable or predict variable, while oil prices, industrial production, and short-term interest rate are as independent, or predictor variables. The study is quantitative in nature. All data was collected from OECD website with the exception of oil prices, which were taken from oil intelligence report. The model, which has been used in the study is based on Arbitrage pricing theory-APT model, where financial assets are associated with macroeconomic variables. The results showed that Industrial production is positively associated with a real stock return in the case of Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France, while the short-term interest rate is negatively connected with a real stock return in the case of Canada, the United Kingdom, and United States of America. Oil prices have an insignificant effect on real stock markets of all considered countries. The authors provide an economic interpretation of the obtained results.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Masood & Manuela Tvaronavičienė & Kiran Javaria, 2019. "Impact of oil prices on stock return: evidence from G7 countries," Post-Print hal-02163013, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02163013
    DOI: 10.9770/ird.2019.1.2(4)
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02163013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02163013/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.9770/ird.2019.1.2(4)?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Nonlinearities And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 364-378, November.
    2. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    4. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    5. Arouri Mohamed el hédi & Fouquau Julien, 2009. "On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in gcc countries: linear and nonlinear analyses," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 795-804.
    6. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Oil Factor in Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-40, April.
    7. Van Wijnbergen, Sweden, 1986. "On fiscal deficits, the real exchange rate and the world rate of interest," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1013-1023, October.
    8. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    9. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    10. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    11. Tatom, John A., 1988. "Are the macroeconomic effects of oil-price changes symmetric?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 325-368, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dat Nguyen Duy & Lan Nguyen Thi Ngoc & Huy Dinh Tran Ngoc & Yen Ly Lan & Dung Nguyen Tien & Dat Pham Minh, 2020. "Plans for better business performance of Sony in Japan - and suggestions for management and financial accounting transparency," Management, Sciendo, vol. 24(2), pages 132-145, December.
    2. Svetlana Mikhailovna Bychkova & Elena Anatolyevna Zhidkova & Dmitriy Vitalievich Eliashev, 2019. "Production activity control methods of the agricultural organizations," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(2), pages 1330-1340, December.
    3. N.A. Prodanova & N.S. Plaskova & V.A. Dikikh & L.V. Sotnikova & L.K. Nikandrova & G.A. Skachko, 2019. "Techniques for Assessing the Investment Attractiveness of a Commercial Organization based on Classical Methods of Strategic Economic Analysis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 35-46.
    4. Arvian Triantoro & Muhammad Zaheer Akhtar & Shiraz Khan & Khalid Zaman & Haroon ur Rashid Khan & Abdul Wahab Pathath & Muhamad Amar Mahmad & Kamil Sertoglu, 2023. "Riding the Waves of Fluctuating Oil Prices: Decoding the Impact on Economic Growth," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 34-50, March.
    5. Gulmira Moldabekova & Zhanarys Raimbekov & Arsen Tleppayev & Yuliya Tyurina & Raushan Yesbergen & Gulimai Amaniyazova, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Kazakhstan and the Consequences for the Formation of Social Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-454, July.
    6. Supriyanto Supriyanto & Suripto Suripto & Arif Sugiono & Putri Irmala Sari, 2021. "Impact of Oil Prices and Stock Returns: Evidence of Oil and Gas Mining Companies in Indonesia during the COVID-19 Period," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 312-318.
    7. Mihaela Simionescu & Yuriy Bilan & Emília Krajňáková & Dalia Streimikiene & Stanisław Gędek, 2019. "Renewable Energy in the Electricity Sector and GDP per Capita in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-15, June.
    8. Yana S. Matkovskaya & Elena Vechkinzova & Yelena Petrenko & Larissa Steblyakova, 2021. "Problems of Innovative Development of Oil Companies: Actual State, Forecast and Directions for Overcoming the Prolonged Innovation Pause," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    9. Fernando García & Jairo González-Bueno & Francisco Guijarro & Javier Oliver, 2020. "A multiobjective credibilistic portfolio selection model. Empirical study in the Latin American integrated market," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(2), pages 1027-1046, December.
    10. Yakup Soylemez, 2021. "The causality relationship between energy prices and developed countries indices," Bussecon Review of Social Sciences (2687-2285), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 3(2), pages 24-40, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    2. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    4. Jinghua Wang & Geoffrey Ngene, 2018. "Symmetric and asymmetric nonlinear causalities between oil prices and the U.S. economic sectors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 199-218, July.
    5. Berna Aydogan & Istemi Berk, 2015. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidences from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 54-68.
    6. Mokni, Khaled & Youssef, Manel, 2019. "Measuring persistence of dependence between crude oil prices and GCC stock markets: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 14-33.
    7. Berk, Istemi & Aydogan, Berna, 2012. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," EWI Working Papers 2012-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    8. Ronald A. Ratti & M. Zahid Hasan, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89, pages 67-83, June.
    9. Manel Youssef & Khaled Mokni, 2019. "Do Crude Oil Prices Drive the Relationship between Stock Markets of Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-542, May.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Gül Serife Huyugüzel Kisla & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Coskun Akdeniz, 2021. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Returns in the BRICS-T Countries: A Time-Varying Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 9322, CESifo.
    12. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    13. Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled & Abid, Ilyes, 2016. "Oil price and stock market co-movement: What can we learn from time-scale approaches?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 266-280.
    14. David C. Broadstock, Ying Fan, Qiang Ji, and Dayong Zhang, 2016. "Shocks and Stocks: A Bottom-up Assessment of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and the Returns of Chinese Firms," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(China Spe).
    15. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Liu, De-Chih & Liu, Chih-Yun, 2016. "The source of stock return fluctuation in Taiwan," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-88.
    17. Boubaker, Heni & Raza, Syed Ali, 2017. "A wavelet analysis of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and BRICS stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 105-117.
    18. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    19. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    20. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2015. "Investigation of Driving Forces of Energy Consumption in European Union 28 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 422-432.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; industrial production; short-term interest rate; real stock return; G7 countries; Arbitrage Pricing Theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02163013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.