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Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns

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  • Catão, Luis A. V.
  • Timmermann, Allan G

Abstract

An important question in international finance is to what extent stock return volatility is influenced by country location, industry affiliation, and global factors. This Paper develops a new methodology to measure these effects, in which portfolios mimicking ‘pure’ country and industry factors are first constructed and their joint dynamics then modelled as regime-switching processes. Applying this methodology to a uniquely long set of international firm level data, we identify well-defined high and low volatility states over the past 30 years, and show that the contribution of industry and country factors to stock return volatility varies markedly across such states. In particular, we find that the country factor contribution drops markedly when global equity market volatility rises, and that country return correlations become tighter when global and industry factors are both in a high volatility state. Key implications for global portfolio allocation are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Catão, Luis A. V. & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4368
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fedorova, Elena, 2011. "Transfer of financial risk in emerging eastern European stock markets : A sectoral perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. L’Her, Jean-François & Le Moigne, Cécile & Savaria, Patrick, 2007. "Importance relative des effets pays et secteurs dans les marchés développés," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(2), pages 201-226, juin.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    4. Bai, Ye & Green, Christopher J. & Leger, Lawrence, 2012. "Industry and country factors in emerging market returns: Did the Asian crisis make a difference?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 559-580.
    5. Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2012. "The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-41.
    6. John Ammer & Jon Wongswan, 2007. "Cash Flows and Discount Rates, Industry and Country Effects and Co-Movement in Stock Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 211-226, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    diversification; international financial markets; risk; volatility states;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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