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External Validity in a Stochastic World

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Rosenzweig

  • Christopher Udry

Abstract

This paper examines the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these shocks and the casual effects. It shows that returns to investment in agriculture, small and medium enterprises and human capital differ significantly from year to year. It also shows how returns to investments interact with specific aggregate shocks, and estimate the parameters of the distributions of these shocks. The paper further shows how to use these estimates to appropriately widen estimated confidence intervals to account for aggregate shocks. [Working Paper 22449]

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Rosenzweig & Christopher Udry, 2016. "External Validity in a Stochastic World," Working Papers id:11134, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:11134
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Dustan & Juan Manuel Hernandez-Agramonte & Stanislao Maldonado, 2018. "Motivating bureaucrats with non-monetary incentives when state capacity is weak: Evidence from large-scale," Natural Field Experiments 00664, The Field Experiments Website.
    2. Kate Ambler & Alan de Brauw & Susan Godlonton, 0. "Cash Transfers and Management Advice for Agriculture: Evidence from Senegal," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 597-617.
    3. Dustan, Andrew & Maldonado, Stanislao & Hernandez-Agramonte, Juan Manuel, 2018. "Motivating bureaucrats with non-monetary incentives when state capacity is weak: Evidence from large-scale field experiments in Peru," MPRA Paper 90952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:nbr:nberch:13946 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Troost, Christian & Huber, Robert & Bell, Andrew R. & van Delden, Hedwig & Filatova, Tatiana & Le, Quang Bao & Lippe, Melvin & Niamir, Leila & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Berger, Thomas, 2023. "How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 159, pages 1-21.
    6. Kevin Donovan & Wyatt Brooks, 2017. "Eliminating Uncertainty in Market Access: The Impact of New Bridges in Rural Nicaragua," 2017 Meeting Papers 1607, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Ben Brunckhorst & Ruth Hill & Ghazala Mansuri & Trang Nguyen & Miki Doan, 2023. "Climate and Equity," World Bank Publications - Reports 39952, The World Bank Group.
    8. Bell, Andrew Reid & Engelbert, Mark, 2025. "When does new information encourage adoption, and where can we observe it: A synthesis of 3ie’s thematic window on agricultural innovation," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    9. Arthur Lewbel, 2019. "The Identification Zoo: Meanings of Identification in Econometrics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 835-903, December.
    10. Gauri, Varun & Jamison, Julian C. & Mazar, Nina & Ozier, Owen, 2021. "Motivating bureaucrats through social recognition: External validity—A tale of two states," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 117-131.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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