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Forecasting domestic liquidity during a crisis: what works best?

  • Winston R. Moore

    (Department of Economics, University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, BB 11000 Bridgetown, Barbados)

The 1990s were a turbulent time for Latin American and Caribbean countries. During this period, the region suffered from no less than 16 banking crises. One the most important determinants of the severity of banking a crisis is commercial bank liquidity. Banking systems that are relatively liquid are better able to deal with the large deposit withdrawals which tend to accompany bank runs. This study provides an assessment of whether behavioural models, linear time series or nonlinear time series models are better able to account for liquidity dynamics during a crisis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1033
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 26 (2007)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 445-455

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:26:y:2007:i:6:p:445-455
DOI: 10.1002/for.1033
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3719, The World Bank.
  2. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
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  6. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
  7. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2004. "The credit crunch in East Asia: what can bank excess liquid assets tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 27-49, February.
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