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Forecasting domestic liquidity during a crisis: what works best?

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  • Winston R. Moore

    (Department of Economics, University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, BB 11000 Bridgetown, Barbados)

Abstract

The 1990s were a turbulent time for Latin American and Caribbean countries. During this period, the region suffered from no less than 16 banking crises. One the most important determinants of the severity of banking a crisis is commercial bank liquidity. Banking systems that are relatively liquid are better able to deal with the large deposit withdrawals which tend to accompany bank runs. This study provides an assessment of whether behavioural models, linear time series or nonlinear time series models are better able to account for liquidity dynamics during a crisis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Winston R. Moore, 2007. "Forecasting domestic liquidity during a crisis: what works best?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 445-455.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:26:y:2007:i:6:p:445-455
    DOI: 10.1002/for.1033
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    4. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    5. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2004. "The credit crunch in East Asia: what can bank excess liquid assets tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 27-49, February.
    6. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
    7. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordan, Alwyn & Branch, Sharon & McQuay, Andrea & Cooper, Yvonne & Smith, Latoya, 2012. "An analysis of bank liquidity in the Bahamas,2001-2012," MPRA Paper 51872, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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