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Can Futures Market Data Be Used to Understand the Behavior of Real Interest Rates?*

* This paper is a replication of an original study

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  • Mishkin, Frederic S

Abstract

This paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates. Several ways of examining the data indicate that futures market data are not particularly informative about real interest rates. No only does this evidence cast some doubt on results in previous research that make use of futures market data to draw inferences about real interest rates, but it also indicates that future research on real interest rates may need to turn to a different line of attack. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "Can Futures Market Data Be Used to Understand the Behavior of Real Interest Rates?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 245-257, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:1:p:245-57
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
    2. Gibson, William E, 1972. "Interest Rates and Inflationary Expectations: New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 854-865, December.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-1241, December.
    5. Tanzi, Vito, 1980. "Inflationary Expectations, Economic Activity, Taxes, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 12-21, March.
    6. Parks, Richard W, 1978. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 79-95, February.
    7. Joines, Douglas, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 476-477, June.
    8. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "The Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements under Alternative Operating Prosedures and Reserve Requirement Systems," NBER Working Papers 1812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    10. Carlson, John A, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 469-475, June.
    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saleuddin, Rasheed & Coffman, D’Maris, 2018. "Can inflation expectations be measured using commodity futures prices?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 37-48.
    2. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2019. "The Fisher puzzle, real rate anomaly, and Wicksell effect," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 128-148.
    3. Shibamoto, Masahiko & Shizume, Masato, 2014. "Exchange rate adjustment, monetary policy and fiscal stimulus in Japan's escape from the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.

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    Replication

    This item is a replication of:
  • Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
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