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Would constraining US fossil fuel production affect global CO2 emissions? A case study of US leasing policy

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  • Peter Erickson

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (U.S. Center))

  • Michael Lazarus

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (U.S. Center))

Abstract

Avoiding dangerous climate change will require a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. By some estimates, global consumption and production of fossil fuels—particularly coal and oil—will need to end almost entirely within 50 years. Given the scale of such a transition, nations may need to consider policies that constrain growth in fossil fuel supplies in addition to those that reduce demand. Here, we examine the emissions implications of a supply-constraining measure that was rapidly gaining momentum in the United States (US) under the Obama administration: ceasing the issuance of new leases for fossil fuel extraction on federal lands and waters. Such a measure could reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 280 million tons annually by 2030, comparable to that of other major climate policies adopted or considered by the Obama administration. Our findings suggest that measures to constrain fossil fuel supply—though not currently viable in a US Trump administration—deserve further consideration at subnational levels in the US or by other countries now, and by future US administrations.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Erickson & Michael Lazarus, 2018. "Would constraining US fossil fuel production affect global CO2 emissions? A case study of US leasing policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 29-42, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:150:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2152-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2152-z
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    2. Branko Bošković & Andrew Leach, 2020. "Leave it in the ground? Oil sands development under carbon pricing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 526-562, May.
    3. Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen & Peter Birch Sørensen, 2021. "Opimal Unilateral Climate Policy with Carbon Leakage at the Extensive and the Intensive Margin," CESifo Working Paper Series 9185, CESifo.
    4. Kacker, Kanishka & Lange, Ian, 2022. "Inter-regional coal mine competition in the US: Evidence from rail restrictions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Prest, Brian C. & Stock, James H., 2023. "Climate royalty surcharges," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Philippe Le Billon & Berit Kristoffersen, 2020. "Just cuts for fossil fuels? Supply-side carbon constraints and energy transition," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(6), pages 1072-1092, September.
    7. Xiaolin Wang & Xiangyi Lu & Na Zhou & Jianzhong Xiao & Jun Chen, 2020. "Does Environmental Regulation Affect Natural Gas Consumption? Evidence from China with Spatial Insights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Truzaar Dordi & Olaf Weber, 2019. "The Impact of Divestment Announcements on the Share Price of Fossil Fuel Stocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Foramitti, Joël & Savin, Ivan & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2021. "Regulation at the source? Comparing upstream and downstream climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    10. Prest, Brian C., 2020. "Supply-Side Reforms to Oil and Gas Production on Federal Lands: Modeling the Implications for Climate Emissions, Revenues, and Production Shifts," RFF Working Paper Series 20-16, Resources for the Future.
    11. Garth Day & Creina Day, 2022. "The supply-side climate policy of decreasing fossil fuel tax profiles: can subsidized reserves induce a green paradox?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.

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