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Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations

Author

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  • Seth B. Carpenter

    (Federal Reserve Board Department of Economics, Koc University)

  • Selva Demiralp

    (Federal Reserve Board Department of Economics, Koc University)

Abstract

Central banking transparency is now a topic of great interest, but its impact on the implementation of monetary policy has not been studied. This paper documents that anticipated changes in the target federal funds rate complicate open market operations. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence on the behavior of banks and the Open Market Trading Desk. We find a significant shift in demand for funds ahead of expected target rate changes and that the Desk only incompletely accommodates this shift in demand. This anticipation effect, however, does not materially affect other markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2006. "Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2006:q:2:a:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    2. Clouse, James A. & Dow, James Jr., 2002. "A computational model of banks' optimal reserve management policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1787-1814, September.
    3. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence from Daily Open Market Operations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, June.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March.
    5. Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. "Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
    6. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2002. "The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 29-48.
    7. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William C. Whitesell, 2006. "Monetary policy implementation without averaging or rate corridors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Judson, Ruth A. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2010. "Whither the liquidity effect: The impact of Federal Reserve open market operations in recent years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 713-731, September.
    3. Artuç, Erhan & Demiralp, Selva, 2010. "Discount window borrowing after 2003: The explicit reduction in implicit costs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 825-833, April.
    4. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Corrinne Ho, 2008. "Implementing monetary policy in the 2000s: operating procedures in Asia and beyond," BIS Working Papers 253, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Alexander Kroeger & John McGowan & Asani Sarkar, 2018. "The pre-crisis monetary policy implementation framework," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-2, pages 38-70.
    7. Dawid J. van Lill, 2017. "Changes in the Liquidity Effect Over Time: Evidence from Four Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 704, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    8. Demiralp, Selva & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Asymmetric response to monetary policy surprises at the long-end of the yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 404-418.
    9. Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2011. "Volatility, Money Market Rates, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1129, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    10. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Openness And Structural Labor Market Reforms: Ex Ante Counterfactuals," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 723-757, October.
    11. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2008. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence at the Monthly Frequency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1345-1438, Elsevier.
    13. Peter G. Dunne & Michael J. Fleming & Andrey Zholos, 2013. "ECB monetary operations and the interbank repo market," Staff Reports 654, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Ruth A. Judson & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2009. "A study of U.S. monetary policy implementation: demand for reserves on a period average basis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Ahn, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2021. "Delayed overshooting can still be a puzzle after the 1980s," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    16. Carpenter, Seth B. & Demiralp, Selva & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "Volatility in the federal funds market and money market spreads during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 225-233.
    17. Yasuo Nishiyama, 2017. "Open market operations and associated movements of the federal funds rate during the week prior to target changes," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 806-828, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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