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Volatility, money market rates, and the transmission of monetary policy

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  • Seth B. Carpenter
  • Selva Demiralp

Abstract

Central banks typically control an overnight interest rate as their policy tool, and the transmission of monetary policy happens through the relationship of this overnight rate to the rest of the yield curve. The expectations hypothesis, that longer-term rates should equal expected future short-term rates plus a term premium, provides the typical framework for understanding this relationship. We explore the effect of volatility in the federal funds market on the expectations hypothesis in money markets. We present two major results. First, the expectations hypothesis is likely to be rejected in money markets if the realized federal funds rate is studied instead of an appropriate measure of the expected federal funds rate. Second, we find that lower volatility in the bank funding markets market, all else equal, leads to a lower term premium and thus longer-term rates for a given setting of the overnight rate. The results appear to hold for the US as well as the Euro Area and the UK. The results have implications for the design of operational frameworks for the implementation of monetary policy and for the interpretation of the changes in the Libor-OIS spread during the financial crisis. We also demonstrate that the expectations hypothesis is more likely to hold the more closely linked the short- and long-term interest rates are.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2011. "Volatility, money market rates, and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. C. Emre Alper & R. Armando Morales & Fan Yang, 2017. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission Along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 455-478, September.
    3. Heung Soon Jung & Dong Jin Lee & Tae Hyo Gwon & Se Jin Yun, 2015. "Reference Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Korea," Working Papers 2015-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy); Interest rates; Federal funds market (United States);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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