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Volatility, Money Market Rates, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

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  • Seth B. Carpenter

    () (Division of Monetary Affairs Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

  • Selva Demiralp

    () (Koc University)

Abstract

We explore the effect of volatility in the federal funds market on the expectations hypothesis in money markets. We find that lower volatility in the bank funding markets market, all else equal, leads to a lower term premium and thus longer-term rates for a given setting of the overnight rate. The results appear to hold for the US as well as the Euro Area and the UK. The results have implications for the design of operational frameworks for the implementation of monetary policy and for the interpretation of the changes in the Libor-OIS spread during the financial crisis

Suggested Citation

  • Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2011. "Volatility, Money Market Rates, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1129, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1129
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    File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1129.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demiralp, Selva, 2008. "Monetary policy surprises and the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the yield curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-3, October.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    3. Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2006. "Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    5. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    6. Nautz, Dieter & Schmidt, Sandra, 2009. "Monetary policy implementation and the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
    7. Tapking, Jens & Eisenschmidt, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
    8. Demiralp, Selva & Farley, Dennis, 2005. "Declining required reserves, funds rate volatility, and open market operations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1131-1152, May.
    9. Ann-Marie Meulendyke, 1998. "U.S. monetary policy and financial markets," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, number 1998mpaf.
    10. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:3:p:455-478 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. C. Emre Alper & R. Armando Morales & Fan Yang, 2017. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission Along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 455-478, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary transmission mechanism; expectations hypothesis; term premium;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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