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Price Adjustment to the Exchange Rate Shock in World Commodity Markets

Listed author(s):
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Jintae Kim

We empirically investigate dynamic responses of 49 IMF primary commodity prices to the US dollar exchange rate shock using recursively identified vector autoregressive models. Our major empirical findings are as follows. First, price adjustments toward the new equilibrium tend to be gradual with a few exceptions. We propose and estimate two measures of price-stickiness, which provide strong evidence of short-run price rigidity in most commodities. Second, our dynamic elasticity analysis implies that price responses are quite heterogeneous even in the long-run. Some commodity prices over-adjust to the exchange rate shock, which implies higher volatility of those prices than that of the exchange rate. Third, for those commodities that over-adjust, prices in the rest of the world would rise significantly when the US dollar depreciates unexpectedly, suggesting a role for price stabilization policies.

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File URL: http://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2016/2016-01.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Auburn University in its series Auburn Economics Working Paper Series with number auwp2016-01.

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Date of creation: Mar 2016
Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2016-01
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Web page: http://cla.auburn.edu/economics/

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
  2. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
  3. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: a macro or micro phenomenon?," Staff Reports 149, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  5. Goldberg, Pinelopi K. & Verboven, Frank, 2005. "Market integration and convergence to the Law of One Price: evidence from the European car market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 49-73, January.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
  7. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  8. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  9. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
  10. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
  11. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-784, September.
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