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Viterbi-Based Estimation for Markov Switching GARCH Model

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  • Robert J. Elliott
  • John W. Lau
  • Hong Miao
  • Tak Kuen Siu

Abstract

We outline a two-stage estimation method for a Markov-switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model modulated by a hidden Markov chain. The first stage involves the estimation of a hidden Markov chain using the Vitberi algorithm given the model parameters. The second stage uses the maximum likelihood method to estimate the model parameters given the estimated hidden Markov chain. Applications to financial risk management are discussed through simulated data.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Elliott & John W. Lau & Hong Miao & Tak Kuen Siu, 2012. "Viterbi-Based Estimation for Markov Switching GARCH Model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 219-231, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:219-231
    DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2011.620396
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markus Haas, 2004. "A New Approach to Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 493-530.
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    6. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1995. "The Estimation of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model by Use of Kalman Filtering Techniques," Working Paper Series 54, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Luc Bauwens & Arie Preminger & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2006. "Regime switching GARCH models," Cahiers de recherche 06-08, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    8. Carl Chiarella & Sara Pasquali & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "On Filtering in Markovian Term Structure Models (An Approximation Approach)," Research Paper Series 65, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Elliott, R. J. & Malcolm, W. P. & Tsoi, Allanus H., 2003. "Robust parameter estimation for asset price models with Markov modulated volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1391-1409, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Osuntuyi, Anthony, 2016. "Efficient Gibbs sampling for Markov switching GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 37-57.
    2. Wee, Damien C.H. & Chen, Feng & Dunsmuir, William T.M., 2022. "Likelihood inference for Markov switching GARCH(1,1) models using sequential Monte Carlo," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 50-68.
    3. June Cao & Chris Patel, 2020. "The role of the national institutional environment in IFRS convergence: a new approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3367-3406, December.

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