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The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages

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  • Osborn, Denise R.
  • Sensier, Marianne

Abstract

This paper discusses recent research at the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research on the prediction of the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle for the UK, US, Germany, France and Italy. Financial variables are important predictors in these models, with the stock market playing a key role in the US but not the European countries, including the UK. In contrast, international linkages are important for the European countries. Our models suggest that the US and German economies have now emerged from the recession of 2001, and that all five countries will be in expansion during the third quarter of this year.

Suggested Citation

  • Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2002. "The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182, pages 96-105, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:182:y:2002:i::p:96-105_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2001. "An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-37.
    2. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Skikiewicz Robert & Garczarczyk Józef, 2018. "Cyclical Fluctuations in the Banking Services Market and the Changes in the Situation of Entities from the Financial Services Sector," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 5(52), pages 118-129, January.
    3. Kee Tuan Teng & Siew Hwa Yen & Soo Y. Chua, 2013. "The Synchronisation of ASEAN-5 Stock Markets with the Growth Rate Cycles of Selected Emerging and Developed Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, February.
    4. Wolfgang Ketter & John Collins & Maria Gini & Alok Gupta & Paul Schrater, 2012. "Real-Time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided by Economic Regimes," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 1263-1283, December.
    5. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.

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