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The US real GNP is trend-stationary after all

Author

Listed:
  • Tolga Omay
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Giovanni Bonaccolto

Abstract

This article applies the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) Dickey–Fuller (DF)-type unit root test on the natural logarithm of US real GNP over the quarterly period of 1875:1–2015:2, to determine whether the same is trend- or difference-stationary. While standard and Integer Frequency Flexible Fourier Form DF-type test fails to reject the null of unit root, the relatively more powerful FFFFF DF-type test provides strong evidence of the real GNP as being trend-stationary, i.e. US output returns to a deterministic log-nonlinear trend in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Tolga Omay & Rangan Gupta & Giovanni Bonaccolto, 2017. "The US real GNP is trend-stationary after all," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 510-514, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:8:p:510-514
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1205719
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    Cited by:

    1. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Is Swaziland on a path of convergence towards her main trading partners?," MPRA Paper 88790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hoa Thanh Phan Le & Ha Pham & Nga Thi Thu Do & Khoa Dang Duong, 2024. "Foreign direct investment, total factor productivity, and economic growth: evidence in middle-income countries," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Chang, Shinhye & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Growth volatility and inequality in the U.S.: A wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 48-73.
    4. David De Villiers & Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Towards resolving the purchasing power parity (PPP) ‘Puzzle’ in newly industrialized countries (NIC’s)," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 161-180, February.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2024. "Exponential Time Trends in a Fractional Integration Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, May.
    6. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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