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Modelling a Regime-Shifting New Zealand Beveridge Curve

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Abstract

This paper offers new insights into Beveridge curve analysis by modelling the vacancy-unemployment rate relationship within a Markov regime-switching environment in which the probability of curve-shifting is determined endogenously by shift factors. Shift factor candidates include structural factors (such as labour market participation and net migration) and cyclical variables (such as GDP growth and real interest rates). This approach enables us to estimate regime-specific parameters and the role played by shift factors in influencing the transition probabilities of switching between regimes. We illustrate our model with an application to New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Dutu & Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2009. "Modelling a Regime-Shifting New Zealand Beveridge Curve," Working Papers in Economics 09/13, University of Waikato.
  • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:09/13
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    File URL: ftp://wms-webprod1.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/0913.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Razzak, Weshah, 2008. "On The dynamic of search, matching and productivity in New Zealand and Australia," MPRA Paper 8262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger & Hans-Friedrich Eckey, 2008. "On the stability of the German Beveridge curve: a spatial econometric perspective," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(4), pages 967-986, December.
    3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    4. Robert G. Valletta, 2005. "Why has the U.S. Beveridge curve shifted back? new evidence using regional data," Working Paper Series 2005-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Kenneth Burdett & Shouyong Shi & Randall Wright, 2001. "Pricing and Matching with Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1060-1085, October.
    6. Simon Baker & Seamus Hogan & Christopher Ragan, 1996. "Is There Compelling Evidence against Increasing Returns to Matching in the Labour Market?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 976-993, November.
    7. Layard, Richard & Bean, Charles, 1989. " Why Does Unemployment Persist?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(2), pages 371-396.
    8. Wall, Howard J & Zoega, Gylfi, 2002. " The British Beveridge Curve: A Tale of Ten Regions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 261-280, July.
    9. Mumford, Karen & Smith, Peter N, 1999. " The Hiring Function Reconsidered: On Closing the Circle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 343-364, August.
    10. Thomas J. Cunningham, 1994. "Review essay on Structural Slumps: the Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets by Edmund S. Phelps, 1994," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Nov, pages 30-33.
    11. Webster, Elizabeth, 1999. "Labour Market Programs and the Australian Beveridge Curve: 1978 to 1997," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(231), pages 405-416, December.
    12. Margaret Stevens, 2007. "New Microfoundations For The Aggregate Matching Function," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(3), pages 847-868, August.
    13. Coles, Melvyn G & Smith, Eric, 1998. "Marketplaces and Matching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 239-254, February.
    14. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1997. "Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, job matching, and labor market dynamics," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-19.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching workers with jobs:how well is the New Zealand labour market doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 3-12, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beveridge curve; regime-switching; New Zealand;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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