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Impact of Oil Price and Shocks on Economic Growth of Pakistan: Multivariate Analysis

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  • Nazir, Sidra
  • Qayyum, Abdul

Abstract

Oil is becoming the most prominent indicator of economic growth in Pakistan with increase of its demand. Also oil prices are doing their main contribution to impact the GDP of Pakistan including different shock dummies in data. In this study, Cobb-Douglas production function has used to construct model by introducing total oil consumption and Pakistan’s oil price variable to investigate the impact on GDP. ADF (1979), Johansen Maximum Likelihood method of cointegration (1988) and Granger causality test by applying restriction on dynamic model are used to test the order of integration, Long run and short run dynamics and causal relationship between variable using annual data since 1972-2011 in context of Pakistan. Through examining the results the long run and dynamic relationship has detected for all the variables except total and oil price variables for model has no short run impact on GDP. Oil prices impacting real GDP negatively in long run but positively in short run (Rasmussen and Roitman, 2011). There is evidence of causality between Oil consumption (including sectors) and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazir, Sidra & Qayyum, Abdul, 2014. "Impact of Oil Price and Shocks on Economic Growth of Pakistan: Multivariate Analysis," MPRA Paper 55929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55929
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Valasai, Gordhan Das & Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam & Memon, HafeezUr Rahman & Samoo, Saleem Raza & Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Harijan, Khanji, 2017. "Overcoming electricity crisis in Pakistan: A review of sustainable electricity options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 734-745.
    3. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sugra Humbatova & Mubariz Mammadli & Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on National Income: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-11, March.
    4. Farhan Ahmed & Muhammad Osama Daudpota & Muhammad Kashif, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks And Industry Level Production Using Vector Autoregression: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 11(3), pages 13-25.
    5. KILICARSLAN Zerrin & DUMRUL Yasemin, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impacts Of Oil Price Shocks: An Empirical Analysis Based On The Svar Models," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(5), pages 55-72, December.
    6. Naurin, Abida & Qayyum, Abdul, 2016. "Impact of Oil Price and Its Volatility on CPI of Pakistan: Bivariate EGARCH Model," MPRA Paper 69774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sannur Aliyev & Javid Zeynalov, 2020. "The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 72-80.
    8. Waqar Badshah & Mehmet Bulut, 2020. "Model Selection Procedures in Bounds Test of Cointegration: Theoretical Comparison and Empirical Evidence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-23, June.
    9. Naurin, Abida & Qayyum, Abdul, 2016. "Impact of Oil Price and Its Volatility on Stock Market Index in Pakistan: Bivariate EGARCH Model," MPRA Paper 70636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gulzar Ali & Zhaohua Li, 2016. "Analyzing the role of Imports in Economic Growth of Pakistan; Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(9), pages 19-37, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Prices; Oil Consumption of Pakistan; Oil Shocks; Economic Growth Cointegration; Error Correction Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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