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Exchange rates and monetary policy regimes in Canada and the U.S

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  • Keith Sill
  • Jeffrey M. Wrase

Abstract

This paper examines monetary regime switching in Canada and the United States and the implications of regime switching for exchange rates and key nominal and real macroeconomic aggregates for the two countries. Evidence of Markov regime switching in the process governing monetary base growth and in the bilateral exchange rate between the two countries is presented. Given this evidence, a two-country general equilibrium monetary model is constructed to account for observed properties of the U.S.-Canadian dollar exchange rate and for measured effects of monetary policy on key variables. Agents in the model face a monetary policy process with regime switching and form beliefs about regimes and money growth using observations and Bayesian learning. With the driving process for money growth rates parameterized using estimates from U.S. and Canadian data, quantitative implications of the model for behaviors of exchange rates and other key variables are examined. The findings are that inc lusion of learning by agents contributes somewhat to the model's ability to account for persistence in effects of money shocks on variables, provided that the shocks themselves are persistent; inclusion of learning contributes little in accounting for business cycle fluctuations and exchange rate variability; inclusion of a nonlinear driving process for money growth rates is important for the model to account for long swings in exchange rates; inclusion of learning adds only slightly to the ability of the model to account for long swings. The importance of nonlinearities in the driving process and the relative lack of importance of learning are consistent with other findings in the literature of learning effects in the face of regime switches.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Exchange rates and monetary policy regimes in Canada and the U.S," Working Papers 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:99-13
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    File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/1999/wp99-13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Solving and simulating a simple open-economy model with Markov-switching driving processes and rational learning," Working Papers 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Solving and simulating a simple open-economy model with Markov-switching driving processes and rational learning," Working Papers 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Andolfatto, David & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2002. "Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 02-30, Bank of Canada.
    3. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Chang, Wen-Ya, 2007. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate dynamics: A rationale for the regime-switching process of exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 64-77, March.
    4. Scott Hendry & Wai-Ming Ho & Kevin Moran, 2003. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules in an Open-Economy, Limited-Participation Model," Staff Working Papers 03-38, Bank of Canada.

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    Keywords

    Canada ; Foreign exchange rates ; Monetary policy;

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