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Exchange rates, monetary policy regimes, and beliefs

  • Keith Sill
  • Jeff Wrase

The authors investigate an international monetary business-cycle model in which agents face monetary policy processes that incorporate regime shifts. In any given period agents cannot directly observe the policy regime, but instead form beliefs that are updated via Bayesian learning. As a result, expectation adjustment displays inertia that adds persistence to the effects of monetary shocks. Monetary policy process for the U.S. and an aggregate of OECD countries are estimated using Hamilton's Markov-switching model. The authors then solve and calibrate a version of the model and examine its quantitative properties.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 99-6.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:99-6
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  1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1993. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Sticky price models of the business cycle: can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem?," Staff Report 217, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1990. "Computational algorithms for solving variants of Fuerst's model," Working Papers 467, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 431-461, June.
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  9. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Exchange rate dynamics and international effects of monetary shocks in monetary, equilibrium models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 155-177, April.
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