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Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Regimes, and Beliefs

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  • Keith Sill

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

  • Jeff Wrase

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Abstract

This paper investigates an international monetary business-cycle model in which agents face monetary policy processes that incorporate regime shifts. In any period, agents cannot directly observe the policy regime, but, instead, form beliefs that are updated through Bayesian learning. Monetary policy processes for the U.S. and an aggregate of OECD countries are estimated using Hamilton's maximum likelihood, Markov-switching procedure. The dynamic, general equilibrium open-economy model that we construct is solved by numerical approximation and parameterized using, in part, estimates of the policy processes which allow for calibration of the belief process employed by agents in the model. Quantiative properties of data drawn from simulations of the model are compared with properties of data drawn from actual economies on exchange rates and key macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Sill & Jeff Wrase, 2000. "Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Regimes, and Beliefs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1701, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1990. "Computational algorithms for solving variants of Fuerst's model," Working Papers 467, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 431-461, June.
    7. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1992. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Exchange rate dynamics and international effects of monetary shocks in monetary, equilibrium models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 155-177, April.
    9. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Solving and simulating a simple open-economy model with Markov-switching driving processes and rational learning," Working Papers 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2006. "Learning, Inflation Cycles, and Depression," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 06-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    3. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2005. "Financial Crisis and Recovery: Learning-based Liquidity Preference Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0504016, EconWPA.
    5. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2004. "Learning, Liquidity Preference, and Business Cycle," ISER Discussion Paper 0601, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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