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Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of COVID-19: A Real-time Analysis

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Abstract

We extract aggregate demand and supply shocks for the US economy from real-time survey data on inflation and real GDP growth using a novel identification scheme. Our approach exploits non-Gaussian features of macroeconomic forecast revisions and imposes minimal theoretical assumptions. After verifying that our results for U.S. post-World War II business cycle fluctuations are largely in line with the prevailing consensus, we proceed to study output and price fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic. We attribute two thirds of the decline in 2020:Q1 GDP to a negative shock to aggregate demand. In contrast, regarding the staggeringly large decline in GDP in 2020:Q2, we estimate two thirds of this shock was due to a reduction in aggregate supply. Statistical analysis suggests a slow recovery due to a persistent effects of the supply shock, but surveys suggest a somewhat faster rebound with a recovery in aggregate supply leading the way.

Suggested Citation

  • Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2020. "Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of COVID-19: A Real-time Analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-49
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences

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    5. Michael Funke & Raphael Terasa, 2020. "Will Germany's Temporary VAT Tax Rates Cut as Part of the Covid-19 Fiscal Stimulus Package Boost Consumption and Growth?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8765, CESifo.
    6. Galindo Gil, Hamilton, 2021. "What kind of firm is more responsive to the unconventional monetary policy?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 188-200.
    7. Povilas Lastauskas, 2022. "Lockdown, employment adjustment, and financial frictions," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 919-942, February.
    8. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
    9. Das, Sonali & Magistretti, Giacomo & Pugacheva, Evgenia & Wingender, Philippe, 2022. "Sectoral spillovers across space and time," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Emanuele Brancati & Marco Brianti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2020. "Credit Constraints anf Firms' Decisions: Evidence from the COVID-19 Outbreak Italian Firms’ Expectations and Plans," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1013, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 07 Oct 2022.
    11. Jean-Paul Renne & Sarah Mouabbi & Adrien Tschopp, 2026. "Inflation and Growth Risk: Balancing the Scales with Surveys," Working papers 1036, Banque de France.
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    14. Gillman, Max & Benk, Szilard & Csabafi, Tamas, 2023. "Supply-side economics with AS-AD in Ramsey dynamic general equilibrium," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 505-531.
    15. Doojav, Gan-Ochir, 2021. "Socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic: Macroeconomic impacts and policy issues in Mongolia," MPRA Paper 111197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2023. "Discrete mixtures of normals pseudo maximum likelihood estimators of structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 643-665.
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    18. Jelena Nikolajenko & Rasa Viederytė & Agnė Šneiderienė & Ignas Aničas, 2021. "Components for Measuring the Efficiency of the Intervention Measures to Support Business, Initiated and Implemented by the Government of Lithuania during the First Lockdown," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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