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Oil Prices, aggregate economic activity and global liquidity conditions: evidence from Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • C. Emre Alper

    (Bogazici University)

  • Orhan Torul

    (Bogazici University)

Abstract

When compared to the previous literature which analyzes oil price changes and real economic activity for countries influencing world demand and/or supply, this study is first of its kind in investigating the relation within the context of a small open economy, Turkey. Parallel to the results of Blanchard and Gali (2007) for developed economies, we first report for Turkey that the negative response of real output to oil price increases have diminished since the early 2000s. Other than using different versions of oil price changes and real output growth, which are the standard variables used in the empirical literature, in our next set of estimations we also include variables to account for global liquidity conditions. Once these variables are incorporated, we unveil that the negative impact of oil price changes on aggregate economic activity is significant even in the post-2000 period.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Emre Alper & Orhan Torul, 2008. "Oil Prices, aggregate economic activity and global liquidity conditions: evidence from Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(6), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08q40017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    3. C. Emre Alper, 2002. "Business Cycles, Excess Volatility, and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 25-58, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dogrul, H. Günsel & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1523-1528, November.
    2. Udabah, Sylvester & Okolo, Chimaobi, 2018. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatilities: Its Implications on the Cost of Living in OPEC Member Country - Nigeria," MPRA Paper 86509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(11), pages 730-739.
    4. Uğur Akkoç & Anıl Akçağlayan & Gamze Kargın Akkoç, 2021. "The impacts of oil price shocks in Turkey: sectoral evidence from the FAVAR approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1147-1171, November.
    5. Mustafa Kilinc & Cengiz Tunc, 2014. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 1423, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Moayad Al Rasasi & Mustafa Yilmaz, 2016. "The Effects of Oil Shocks on Turkish Macroeconomic Aggregates," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 471-476.
    7. Torul Orhan & Alper C. Emre, 2010. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 90-105, July.
    8. Vasif Abiyev & Reşat Ceylan & Munise Ilıkkan Özgür, 2015. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Turkish Business Cycle: A Markov Switching Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 8(2), pages 7-18, October.
    9. Yeliz Yalcin & Cengiz Arikan & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2015. "Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 737-746, November.
    10. Çatik, A. Nazif & Önder, Özlem, 2013. "An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 884-892.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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