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The Chinese Stock Market: A Casino with 'Buffer Zones'?

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  • Eric Girardin
  • Zhenya Liu

Abstract

This paper uses Markov-switching techniques to examine the presence of different market conditions on the Shanghai A-share market since the start of active trading in the mid-1990s. The originality of the paper lies in the identification of three contrasting regimes: a speculative market, a bull market and a bear market. Overall, the 'Casino' character of the Chinese stock market is the main feature that is substantiated by the present paper. However, the bull market regime is always a buffer zone between the other two regimes. After early 1997, an investor with a weekly horizon most of the time finds herself in the bear market and makes capital losses. Only during very short periods of 'luck' does she make substantial capital gains, which on average will compensate her for the losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Girardin & Zhenya Liu, 2003. "The Chinese Stock Market: A Casino with 'Buffer Zones'?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 57-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:1:y:2003:i:1:p:57-70
    DOI: 10.1080/1476528032000039749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Girardin, Eric & Liu, Zhenya, 2007. "The financial integration of China: New evidence on temporally aggregated data for the A-share market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 354-371.
    2. Girardin, Eric & Liu, Zhenya, 2005. "Bank credit and seasonal anomalies in China's stock markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 465-483.
    3. He, Yinghua & Nielsson, Ulf & Guo, Hong & Yang, Jiong, 2014. "Subscribing to transparency," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 189-206.
    4. Hui Hong & Fergal O'Brien & James Ryan, 2014. "Inflation And The Subsequent Timing Of The Chinese Stock Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 10(2), pages 13-35.
    5. Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2013. "Macro fundamentals as a source of stock market volatility in China: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 59-68.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chen Xiang LIU & Mohamed El Hedi AROURI, 2008. "Stock craze: an empirical analysis of PER in Chinese equity market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17.
    8. repec:eee:pacfin:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:127-149 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Fabian Lipinsky & Li Lian Ong, 2014. "Asia’s Stock Markets; Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?," IMF Working Papers 14/37, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Alhaj-Yaseen, Yaseen S. & Rao, Xi & Jin, Yinghua, 2017. "Market liberalization and the extent of informed trading: Evidence from China’s equity markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 78-99.

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    Keywords

    Markov-switching; Chinese Stock Market;

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