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Multiplicité des taux d'endettement d'équilibre et effets d'hystérésis

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Listed:
  • Christophe Tavéra
  • Isabelle Cadoret
  • Claude Jessua

Abstract

[fre] Lorsque la dynamique du taux d'endettement est analysée à partir d'une ver­sion linéaire de la contrainte budgétaire de l'état avec taux d'intérêt exogène, le résultat standard est que la dynamique du ratio dette/PIB est stable (resp. insta­ble) lorsque le taux d'intérêt est inférieur (resp. supérieur) au taux de croissance du PIB. Dans cet article, nous proposons de réexaminer la dynamique du taux d'endettement sous l'hypothèse que le taux d'intérêt est une fonction croissante du ratio dette/PIB. Selon la forme de cette fonction, il apparaît alors une multipli­cité d'équilibres du taux d'endettement ainsi que la possibilité d'effets d'hystérésis dans la dynamique du taux d'endettement d'équilibre. [eng] In this article, we analyze the dynamics of the debt-income ratio when the inte­rest rate is an increasing function of this ratio. Within such a framework, we show that the equilibrium debt-income ratios are multiple and that their dynamics can exhbit hysteresis effect. An empirical illustration permits to show how these theo­retical results can be used to show that the 60 % debt-income ratio imposed by the Maastricht Treaty may be inadequate.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Tavéra & Isabelle Cadoret & Claude Jessua, 1996. "Multiplicité des taux d'endettement d'équilibre et effets d'hystérésis," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 499-509.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_3_409786
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1996.409786
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1996.409786
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    References listed on IDEAS

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