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The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States

  • René Lalonde
  • Nicolas Parent
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    In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument-the federal funds rate-the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity. In this paper, the authors assume that the effective weights put by the Fed on different indicators vary over time. To test this assumption, they estimate a monetary policy priority index by adding non-linear endogenous weights to a conventional Taylor-type rule.

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    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Staff Working Papers with number 06-11.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-11
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    1. Gabriel Srour, 2001. "Why Do Central Banks Smooth Interest Rates?," Staff Working Papers 01-17, Bank of Canada.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
    3. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "The opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kim, Dong Heon & Denise R Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's Monetary Policy Rule," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 121, Royal Economic Society.
    5. Bec Frédérique & Ben Salem Mélika & Collard Fabrice, 2002. "Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence for U.S. French and German Central Banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, July.
    6. Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Staff Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada.
    7. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
    8. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:115:y:2000:i:1:p:147-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert L. Hetzel, 2000. "The Taylor rule : is it a useful guide to understanding monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-33.
    10. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    11. I-Lok Chang & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "How stable are monetary policy rules: Estimating the time-varying coefficients in a monetary policy reaction function for the U.S," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 89, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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