Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy
The linkages between inflation and the economy's cyclical position are thought to be strongly affected by the credibility of monetary authorities. The author complements existing research by estimating a small forward-looking model of the U.S. economy with endogenous central bank credibility. His work differs from the existing literature in several ways. First, he endogenizes and estimates credibility parameters, allowing inflation expectations to be a mix of backward- and forward-looking agents. Second, his models include both outcome- and action-based credibility. Third, he estimates a non-linear relation between policy credibility and divergences of inflation from target, which is also assumed to change over history. Finally, the author's non-linear time-varying credibility indexes do not rely on a two-regime definition, but on a continuum of credibility regimes. The author finds strong, stable, and statistically significant outcome- and action-credibility effects that generate important inflation inertia. According to his results, the value of the endogenous credibility indexes has risen steadily across the different monetary policy regimes.
|Date of creation:||2005|
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- Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001.
"Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
- Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 2001. "Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 01/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-721, November.
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- Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff; Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/220, International Monetary Fund.
- William B. English & William R. Nelson & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Antulio N. Bomfim & Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen & John Williams, 1997. "Expectations, learning and the costs of disinflation: experiments using the FRB/US model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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