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Macroeconomic shocks and business cycles in Australia

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  • Ramon Moreno

Abstract

A small vector autoregression model is estimated to assess how demand and supply shocks influence Australian output and price behavior. The model is identified by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have transitory effects on output, while aggregate supply shocks have permanent effects. The paper describes how Australian macroeconomic variables respond to demand and supply shocks in the short run and in the long run. It also finds that demand shocks are dominant in determining fluctuations in Australian output at a one-quarter horizon, but supply shocks assume the larger role at longer horizons. Supply shocks also account for most of the fluctuations in the Australian price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon Moreno, 1992. "Macroeconomic shocks and business cycles in Australia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 34-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1992:p:34-52:n:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mansur, Alfan & Liu, Yichang & Zaman, Kazi Arif Uz, 2015. "Portfolio Shocks and the Dynamics of the Real Economy of Australia (1980-2014): A Structural Vector Autoregressive Model Approach," MPRA Paper 93992, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2015.
    2. Renée Fry & James Hocking & Vance L. Martin, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 17-33, March.
    3. E.J. Weber, 1993. "The Role of Money During the Recession in Australia in 1990-92," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 93-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Shocks and the Role of Domestic Policy in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 5(2), pages 143-163, June.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Mala Raghavan, 2014. "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the USA and Euro Area," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(291), pages 421-446, December.
    6. Hyeon-Seung Huh, 2005. "A simple test of exogeneity for recursively structured VAR models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(20), pages 2307-2313.
    7. C. O'Sullivan, 1993. "What Everyone Needs to Know About the Australian Business Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 93-21, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

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