Vector autoregression evidence on monetarism: another look at the robustness debate
This paper is a case study of the use of vector autoregression (VAR) models to test economic theories. It focuses on the work of Christopher A. Sims, who in 1980 found that relationships in economic data generated by a small VAR model were inconsistent with those implied by a simple form of monetarist theory. The paper describes the work of researchers who criticized Sims' results as not robust and Sims' response to these critics. The paper reexamines all of this work by estimating hundreds of variations of Sims' model. The paper concludes that both Sims and his critics are right: Sims' conclusion about monetarism is robust, but some of his other statistical results are not. In general, the paper concludes that VAR models can be used to test theories, but that any relationships they uncover in the data must be carefully checked for robustness.
Volume (Year): (1990)
Issue (Month): Spr ()
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- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Charles H. Whiteman & William Roberds, 1990.
"Monetary aggregates as monetary targets: a statistical investigation,"
90-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H, 1992. "Monetary Aggregates as Monetary Targets: A Statistical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 141-61, May.
- Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
- Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1986.
"Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation,"
NBER Working Papers
1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1987.
"Temporal aggregation and structural inference in macroeconomics,"
306, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1987. "Temporal aggregation and structural inference in macroeconomics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 63-130, January.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1986. "Temporal Aggregation and Structural Inference in Macroeconomics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 167-171.
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