Real economic activity and state of financial markets
This study examines the relation between real economic activity and condition of financial markets in Poland in the framework of Consumption Based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM). The article analyses the relation between yield spreads calculated for Polish debt securities and real economic activity. Since CCAPM is the framework of presented analysis the value of real retail sale is used as a measure of real economic activity (here level of real consumption). Furthermore, since host of researchers apply in their studies the whole spectrum of measures of real economic activity the study is extended to encompass also the supply side of the economy. The outcomes for Polish economy suggest that there is some evidence that financial markets may facilitate to forecast the real economic activity. The conclusions from models evaluated for supply and demand side of economy are coherent. Although, the research is conducted on monthly time series the results are consistent with quarterly analyses done for other economies.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
| Length: | 28 pages |
| Date of creation: | 22 May 2007 |
| Handle: | RePEc:wse:wpaper:7 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: 02-513 Warszawa, ul. Madalinskiego 6/8 Phone: + (48)(22) 49 12 51 Fax: + (48)(22) 49 53 12 Web page: http://www.sgh.waw.pl/instytuty/zes Email: More information through EDIRC
|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Balvers, Ronald J. & Huang, Dayong, 2007.
"Productivity-based asset pricing: Theory and evidence,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 405-445, November.
- Ronald J. Balvers & Dayong Huang, 2005. "Productivity-Based Asset Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 05-05 Classification- JEL, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "The Relation between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 169-193, February.
- Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 0691, European Central Bank.
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcin Owczarczuk)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.