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Real economic activity and state of financial markets

Author

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  • Szymon Grabowski

    (Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

This study examines the relation between real economic activity and condition of financial markets in Poland in the framework of Consumption Based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM). The article analyses the relation between yield spreads calculated for Polish debt securities and real economic activity. Since CCAPM is the framework of presented analysis the value of real retail sale is used as a measure of real economic activity (here level of real consumption). Furthermore, since host of researchers apply in their studies the whole spectrum of measures of real economic activity the study is extended to encompass also the supply side of the economy. The outcomes for Polish economy suggest that there is some evidence that financial markets may facilitate to forecast the real economic activity. The conclusions from models evaluated for supply and demand side of economy are coherent. Although, the research is conducted on monthly time series the results are consistent with quarterly analyses done for other economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Szymon Grabowski, 2007. "Real economic activity and state of financial markets," Working Papers 7, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:7
    as

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    File URL: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/struktura/IE/struktura/ZES/Documents/Working_Papers/aewp07-07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    3. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
    4. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
    7. repec:wvu:wpaper:05-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
    9. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    10. Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "The Relation between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 169-193, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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