Real economic activity and state of financial markets
This study examines the relation between real economic activity and condition of financial markets in Poland in the framework of Consumption Based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM). The article analyses the relation between yield spreads calculated for Polish debt securities and real economic activity. Since CCAPM is the framework of presented analysis the value of real retail sale is used as a measure of real economic activity (here level of real consumption). Furthermore, since host of researchers apply in their studies the whole spectrum of measures of real economic activity the study is extended to encompass also the supply side of the economy. The outcomes for Polish economy suggest that there is some evidence that financial markets may facilitate to forecast the real economic activity. The conclusions from models evaluated for supply and demand side of economy are coherent. Although, the research is conducted on monthly time series the results are consistent with quarterly analyses done for other economies.
|Date of creation:||22 May 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 02-513 Warszawa, ul. Madalinskiego 6/8|
Phone: + (48)(22) 49 12 51
Fax: + (48)(22) 49 53 12
Web page: http://www.sgh.waw.pl/instytuty/zes
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Balvers, Ronald J. & Huang, Dayong, 2007.
"Productivity-based asset pricing: Theory and evidence,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 405-445, November.
- Ronald J. Balvers & Dayong Huang, 2005. "Productivity-Based Asset Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 05-05 Classification- JEL, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "The Relation between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 169-193, February.
- Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 0691, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcin Owczarczuk)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.