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What does a financial system say about future economic growth?

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  • Grabowski, Szymon

Abstract

In many research studies it is argued that it is possible to extract useful information about future economic growth from the performance of financial markets. However, this study goes further and shows that it is not only possible to use expectations derived from financial markets to forecast future economic growth, but that data about the financial system can be used for this purpose as well. The research is conducted for the Polish emerging economy on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that, based purely on the data from the financial system, it is possible to construct reasonable measures that can, even for an emerging economy, effectively forecast future real economic activity. The outcomes are proved by two various econometric methods, namely, by a time series analysis and by a probit model. All presented models are tested in-sample and out-of-sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11560
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12834/1/MPRA_paper_12834.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
    5. Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Rodríguez, Rosa, 2006. "On the economic link between asset prices and real activity," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063209, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CCAPM; economic growth; financial markets; term spreads; expectations; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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