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What does a financial system say about future economic growth?

  • Grabowski, Szymon
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    In many research studies it is argued that it is possible to extract useful information about future economic growth from the performance of financial markets. However, this study goes further and shows that it is not only possible to use expectations derived from financial markets to forecast future economic growth, but that data about the financial system can be used for this purpose as well. The research is conducted for the Polish emerging economy on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that, based purely on the data from the financial system, it is possible to construct reasonable measures that can, even for an emerging economy, effectively forecast future real economic activity. The outcomes are proved by two various econometric methods, namely, by a time series analysis and by a probit model. All presented models are tested in-sample and out-of-sample.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12834/1/MPRA_paper_12834.pdf
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11560.

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    Date of creation: 12 Sep 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11560
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    1. Ewa Wrobel & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Poland: a Study of the Importance of Interest Rate and Credit Channels," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/1 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    2. Cole, Rebel & Moshirian, Fari & Wu, Qionbing, 2007. "Bank stock returns and economic growth," MPRA Paper 29188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "The Relation between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 169-93, February.
    4. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 0691, European Central Bank.
    5. Juan Ignacio Pena & Rosa Rodriguez, 2006. "On The Economic Link Between Asset Prices And Real Activity," Business Economics Working Papers wb063209, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    6. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    7. James Orr & Robert Rich & Rae Rosen, 2001. "Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 73-94.
    8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
    9. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
    10. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Laeven, Luc & Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randy, 2002. "Financial crises, financial dependence, and industry growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2855, The World Bank.
    12. Tomasz Łyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wróbel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission Poland: A study of the importance of interest rate and credit channels," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    13. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
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