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Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey

Listed author(s):
  • James A. Orr
  • Robert W. Rich
  • Rae D. Rosen

The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes by estimating the probability of an upcoming cyclical change in state economic activity within the next nine months.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages: 73-94

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2001:i:mar:p:73-94:n:v.7no.1
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  1. Theodore M. Crone, 1994. "New indexes track the state of the states," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 19-31.
  2. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Argia M. Sbordone, 1997. "Sources of New York employment fluctuations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Feb, pages 21-35.
  3. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 1997. "The New York - New Jersey job recovery," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Oct).
  4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  5. Theodore M. Crone & Kevin J. Babyak, 1996. "Looking ahead: leading indexes for Pennsylvania and New Jersey," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-14.
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