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Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey

Author

Listed:
  • James A. Orr
  • Robert W. Rich
  • Rae D. Rosen

Abstract

The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes by estimating the probability of an upcoming cyclical change in state economic activity within the next nine months.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2001. "Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 73-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2001:i:mar:p:73-94:n:v.7no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Theodore M. Crone, 1994. "New indexes track the state of the states," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 19-31.
    2. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Argia M. Sbordone, 1997. "Sources of New York employment fluctuations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Feb), pages 21-35.
    3. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 1997. "The New York - New Jersey job recovery," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Oct).
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Kevin J. Babyak & Theodore M. Crone, 1996. "Looking ahead: leading indexes for Pennsylvania and New Jersey," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-14.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Bram & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York," Staff Reports 188, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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