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The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York

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Abstract

This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for explaining monthly growth in the tax bases. However, much less evidence exists of a statistically significant linkage from the tax bases to the coincident indexes.

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  • Jason Bram & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York," Staff Reports 188, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:188
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    8. Kevin J. Babyak & Theodore M. Crone, 1996. "Looking ahead: leading indexes for Pennsylvania and New Jersey," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-14.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dye, Richard F. & McGuire, Therese J., 1991. "Growth and Variability of State Individual Income and General Sales Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 44(1), pages 55-66, March.
    11. Theodore M. Crone, 1994. "New indexes track the state of the states," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 19-31.
    12. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hines, James Jr., 2002. "Taxation and economic efficiency," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 21, pages 1347-1421, Elsevier.
    13. Keith R. Phillips, 1988. "New tools for analyzing the Texas economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-13.
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    15. James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2001. "Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 73-94.
    16. Theodore M. Crone, 2000. "A new look at economic indexes for the states in the Third District," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-14.
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    1. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "New York and New Jersey poised for modest job growth in 2005," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
    2. Alan Clayton-Matthews & Theodore M. Crone, 2004. "Consistent economic indexes for the 50 states," Working Papers 04-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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    Keywords

    Taxation; Revenue; Economic indicators; Economic conditions - New York (State); Economic conditions - New York (N.Y.); Federal Reserve District; 2nd;
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