IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/car/carecp/04-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index, Risk and Volatility - The Case of the United States

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper extends the literature by developing an objective market-based index, which is dynamic and continuous and can be used to measure the monetary policy transparency for a country or, simultaneously, a series of countries. It was found that the more transparent the monetary policy is, the less risky and volatile the money market will be. Furthermore, during the tenure of Chairman Greenspan the volatility and risk in the money market fell. The policy regime changes of adjusting the target rate by multiples of 25 or 50 basis points and including a balance-of-risks sentence in FOMC statements also resulted in a reduction in volatility in the money markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Amir Kia & Hilde Patron, 2004. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index, Risk and Volatility - The Case of the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 04-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:04-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.carleton.ca/economics/wp-content/uploads/cep04-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amir Kia, 2003. "Forward-looking agents and macroeconomic determinants of the equity price in a small open economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 37-54.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    3. James Van Horne, 1965. "Interest-Rate Risk and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 344-344.
    4. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Cross-Country and Cross-Sector Analysis of Transparency of Monetary and Financial Policies," IMF Working Papers 2003/094, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Peter Howells & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2003. "Central Bank Transparency: A Market Indicator," Working Papers 0305, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    7. Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Modelling the Yield Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 524-537, May.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
    9. Tabellini, Guido, 1987. "Secrecy of Monetary Policy and the Variability of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(4), pages 425-436, November.
    10. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
    11. Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
    12. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
    13. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    14. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    15. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    16. Kearney, Colm, 2000. "The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 31-52.
    17. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
    18. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    19. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
    20. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1986. "Monetary mystique: Secrecy and central banking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-92, January.
    21. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    22. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    23. Officer, R R, 1973. "The Variability of the Market Factor of the New York Stock Exchange," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 434-453, July.
    24. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    25. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    26. Matthew Rafferty & Marc Tomljanovich, 2002. "Central bank transparency and market efficiency: An econometric analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 150-161, June.
    27. Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Is the ECB Sufficiently Accountable and Transparent?," Economics Working Papers 007, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    28. Dotsey, Michael, 1987. "Monetary policy, secrecy, and federal funds rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 463-474, December.
    29. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena Szyszko, 2017. "Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 286-299.
    2. Magdalena Szyszko & Karolina Tura, 2015. "Can Inflation Forecast And Monetary Policy Path Be Really Useful? The Case Of The Czech Republic," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(3), pages 9-26, September.
    3. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Staff Working Papers 07-18, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amir Kia, 2005. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index and Testing Its Impact on Risk and Volatility in the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 05-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    2. Amir KIA, 2009. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index and Testing Its Impact on Risk and Volatility in the United States," EcoMod2009 21500052, EcoMod.
    3. Kia, Amir, 2017. "Monetary policy transparency in a forward-looking market: Evidence from the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 597-617.
    4. Kia, Amir, 2003. "Rational speculators and equity volatility as a measure of ex ante risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-157, July.
    5. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    6. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The effects of a greater central bank credibility on interest rates level and volatility response to news in the U.K," MPRA Paper 5263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kia, Amir, 2010. "Overnight monetary policy in the United States: Active or interest-rate smoothing?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 378-391, March.
    8. Amir Kia, 2005. "Overnight Monetary Policy in the United States: Active or Interest-Rate Smoothing?," Carleton Economic Papers 05-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    9. Amir Kia, 2011. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index: Evidence from the United States," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 16(2), pages 53-80, September.
    10. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Geraats, Petra & van der Cruijsen, Carin, 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October.
    12. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency : A Survey," Discussion Paper 2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1996. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The UK Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 578-592, May.
    16. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
    17. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 449-471, June.
    18. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Inflation Targeting Countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0281, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    19. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    20. Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March.
    21. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Predicting monetary policy using federal funds futures prices," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 307, Stockholm School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy transparency; risk; volatility; money market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:car:carecp:04-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Court Lindsay (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.