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The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union

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  • James Costain
  • Galo Nuño
  • Carlos Thomas

Abstract

We build a no-arbitrage model of the yield curves in a heterogeneous monetary union with sovereign default risk, which can account for the asymmetric shifts in euro area yields during the Covid-19 pandemic. We derive an affine term structure solution, and decompose yields into term premium and credit risk components. In an extension, we endogenize the peripheral default probability, showing that it decreases with central bank bond-holdings. Calibrating the model to Germany and Italy, we show that a “default risk extraction” channel is the main driver of Italian yields, and that flexibility makes asset purchases more effective.

Suggested Citation

  • James Costain & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2022. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 9844, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9844
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Broeders, Dirk & de Haan, Leo & Willem van den End, Jan, 2023. "How quantitative easing changes the nature of sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Nissinen, Juuso & Sihvonen, Markus, 2022. "Bond convenience curves and funding costs," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2022, Bank of Finland.
    3. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    4. Jouvanceau, Valentin & Mikaliunaite-Jouvanceau, Ieva, 2023. "ECB monetary communications: Market fragmentation at stake," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. Jappelli, Ruggero & Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2023. "Quantitative easing, the repo market, and the term structure of interest rates," SAFE Working Paper Series 395, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    6. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    7. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional Path of Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign default; quantitative easing; yield curve; affine model; Covid-19 crisis; ECB; pandemic emergency purchase programme;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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