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The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union

Author

Listed:
  • James Costain
  • Galo Nuño
  • Carlos Thomas

Abstract

We build a no-arbitrage model of the yield curves in a heterogeneous monetary union with sovereign default risk, which can account for the asymmetric shifts in euro area yields during the Covid-19 pandemic. We derive an affine term structure solution, and decompose yields into term premium and credit risk components. In an extension, we endogenize the peripheral default probability, showing that it decreases with central bank bond-holdings. Calibrating the model to Germany and Italy, we show that a “default risk extraction” channel is the main driver of Italian yields, and that flexibility makes asset purchases more effective.

Suggested Citation

  • James Costain & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2022. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 9844, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9844
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    Cited by:

    1. Bellifemine, Marco & Couturier, Adrien & Jamilov, Rustam, 2025. "Monetary unions with heterogeneous fiscal space," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Broeders, Dirk & de Haan, Leo & Willem van den End, Jan, 2023. "How quantitative easing changes the nature of sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Pablo Burriel & Mar Delgado-Téllez & Camila Figueroa & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez, 2024. "Estimating the contribution of macroeconomic factors to sovereign bond spreads in the euro area," Working Papers 2408, Banco de España.
    4. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    6. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional PaThéof Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    7. Bellifemine, Marco & Couturier, Adrien & Jamilov, Rustam, 2025. "Monetary unions with heterogeneous fiscal space," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128186, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Matias Moretti & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Sergio L. Schmukler & Germán Villegas Bauer & Tomás Williams, 2024. "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," CSEF Working Papers 713, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 13 Oct 2025.
    9. Nissinen, Juuso & Sihvonen, Markus, 2024. "Bond convenience curves and funding costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Rojas, Luis E. & Thaler, Dominik, 2024. "The bright side of the doom loop: Banks’ sovereign exposure and default incentives," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    12. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    13. Equiza, Juan & Gimeno, Ricardo & Moreno, Antonio & Thomas, Carlos, 2024. "Evaluating the yield curve effects of central bank asset purchases under a forward-looking supply factor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    14. Jouvanceau, Valentin & Mikaliunaite-Jouvanceau, Ieva, 2023. "ECB monetary communications: Market fragmentation at stake," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    15. Jappelli, Ruggero & Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2023. "Quantitative easing, the repo market, and the term structure of interest rates," SAFE Working Paper Series 395, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    16. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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