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The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union

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  • Costain, James
  • Nuño, Galo
  • Thomas, Carlos

Abstract

We build an arbitrage-based model of the yield curves in a heterogeneous monetary union with sovereign default risk, which can account for the asymmetric shifts in euro area yields during the Covid-19 pandemic. We derive an affine term structure solution and decompose yields into term premium and credit risk components. In an extension, we endogenize the peripheral default probability, showing that it decreases with central bank bond holdings. Calibrating the model to Germany and Italy, we show that a 'default risk extraction' channel is the main driver of Italian yields and that flexibility makes asset purchases more effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Costain, James & Nuño, Galo & Thomas, Carlos, 2024. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 18736, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18736
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    Cited by:

    1. Broeders, Dirk & de Haan, Leo & Willem van den End, Jan, 2023. "How quantitative easing changes the nature of sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Pablo Burriel & Mar Delgado-Téllez & Camila Figueroa & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez, 2024. "Estimating the contribution of macroeconomic factors to sovereign bond spreads in the euro area," Working Papers 2408, Banco de España.
    3. Nissinen, Juuso & Sihvonen, Markus, 2024. "Bond convenience curves and funding costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    6. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional Path of Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    7. Fabian Eser & Wolfgang Lemke & Ken Nyholm & Sören Radde & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2023. "Tracing the Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program on the Yield Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 359-422, August.
    8. Matías Moretti & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Sergio L. Schmukler & Germán Villegas Bauer & Tomás Williams, 2024. "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," CSEF Working Papers 713, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    9. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    10. Equiza, Juan & Gimeno, Ricardo & Moreno, Antonio & Thomas, Carlos, 2024. "Evaluating the yield curve effects of central bank asset purchases under a forward-looking supply factor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    11. Jouvanceau, Valentin & Mikaliunaite-Jouvanceau, Ieva, 2023. "ECB monetary communications: Market fragmentation at stake," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    12. Jappelli, Ruggero & Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2023. "Quantitative easing, the repo market, and the term structure of interest rates," SAFE Working Paper Series 395, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affine model; Quantitative easing; Ecb;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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